Weekend Handicapping: Game On Dude all the way today

Yesterday we saw Alpha do what he was supposed to do, dominate the Withers.  He ran a great race, Dominguez set him up perfectly and took him wide and gunned the field.  This will certainly put him up there as one of the Derby contenders.  The stakes schedule nationwide today is rather thin and the only one of interest is at Santa Anita.  It is 74^th running of the San Antonio(G2) for 4YO an upward going a mile and an eighth over the main course.  It’s a smallish field of seven racing for a purse of $200,000.

This is not a difficult race to handicap, I’m a huge Game On Dude fan and it looks like he will take this field down.  I’ll admit though that he has broken my heart a few times at the finish line, but today he should do well.

Contenders:

#3  Game On Dude ML 4/5

No value here at the windows.  Like I’ve mentioned, I’m a big fan and will make him my top choice. The data is there, top Beyer’s, winner of G1 level races, five of fourteen lifetime and on and on.  He has been off since November and his workouts look great.  There are no weaknesses in the Baffert trained 5YO and has the ability to go wire to wire.  He will go to the front and the big question is there anyone in the field that can catch him.

#2  Uh Oh Bango ML 7/2

He has excellent credentials for this race, just winning the G2 San Pasqual. His Beyer’s are not on the same level as Game On Dude, but can handle the distance and runs a good tactical race.  The angle here is Mike Smith.  He is Chantal’s nemesis in big races and if he can coax a bit more from this 5YO you could see heartbreak hotel for the #3 again.  I don’t expect it, but then again, this is horse racing.

#7  Skipshot ML 8/1

This race shapes up to be chalky, so he fits right in here.  You might expect to see Victory Pete here and that is understandable.  He ran a solid race in the San Pasqual and had his best Beyer of 88.  Not nearly good enough to run with these boys, but I’m thinking Hollendorfer has him set up for today.  You have to respect him, winning the G2 Swaps as a 3YO, popping a 97.  He could be rounding into form and that makes him dangerous.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#4  El Gato Malo ML 12/1

He is crafty one of the bunch, having shown he can win over turf and dirt and handle different distances.  He certainly has shown the speed and stamina to run with this group.  His style of racing suites this race today and if he has it still in him he could surprise.  No doubt he is in tough but you never know.  He is either going to have big day or will be running up the track.

Selections:

3 – 2 -  7 

Weekend Handicapping: DelMar Debutante Part 2 at Santa Anita Oak Leaf today

In the Gold Cup yesterday, the only real surprise was how flat Stay Thirsty looked.  I had a bad feeling when he dropped back a few spots and then tried to rally.  The good part was seeing Flat Out have an excellent race and finally breaking through.  He had all the makings for winning a G1 and he proved himself well yesterday.  Today, we are going to head west and look at the 43^rd running of the Oak Leaf (G1) at Santa Anita for 2YO fillies.  The distance is a mile and one sixteenth over the synthetic surface for a purse of $250,000. 

This 2YO feature race has 10 fillies and some of the best on the west coast.  I can see several winning this race, and frankly there should be plenty of value here due to no one being odds on favorite.  I would consider it to be wide open, and anyone of them could find their stride and take it.  Here is how I see it:

Contenders:

#2  Self Preservation ML 4/1

This Ben Cecil charge made her first start in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and had all sorts of problems.  She was bumped at the start, steadied early and then found her stride and finished second to Weemissfrankie.    I look for PVal to have a smoother trip and stay a bit closer and win this race.  She can go the distance, has the speed and her workouts have been bullets at 6f.  She looks like a solid “go”.

#4  Candera ML 4/1

She has won her first two races including a recent win at the Fairplex in a stakes race.   Her breeding shows going a route will be no problem and both wins were going away.  You can’t ignore the 85 Beyer last out, the highest of the group.  What makes her interesting is that Baffert puts his number one rider, Martin Garcia on her and takes off Pedroza, and puts Pedroza on the horse Garcia had been riding.  For me, that is a Baffert signal this filly is ready, even though she is coming back on 15 days rest. 

#8  Weemissfankie ML 5/2

She is the only G1 winner in the bunch winning the DelMar Debutante soundly.  Her pedigree says she do the distance and has paired 77’s showing consistency.  I’m not sure this filly will dominate again and with Candera’s front end speed, she may have to race differently to win it.  She is good one, but I like the #2 and #4 a bit better.

Dark Horses:

#9 Dreamcaster ML 8/1

This is the other Baffert entrant that didn’t show much in the Debutante at DelMar finishing 7^th after being on the pace till the stretch.  What I find interesting is her Beyers are consistent regardless of how she finished.  Not sure if she has the speed of the top three but the distance might play into her hands. Her breeding shows she can go this distance easily and maybe having the slick Pedroza on board will make the difference.

#10 Charm the Maker ML 8/1

This is a pedigree/key race angle here.  This filly is out of Empire Maker who won the Belmont and her Dam won at the G3 level at this distance.  The show horse won at Golden Gate recently and this filly posted a competitive Beyer of 68 in her maiden win.  McAnally has a 23% winning record with 2YO’s and to drop her into a G1 on her second start says something to me.  Garrett Gomez is on board and he has been nailing big races of late.  I like her enough to win, in the Trifecta for sure.

Bombs Away:

#5 My Gi Gi ML 15/1

This is one of those “beware the shipper” fillies, coming in from Louisiana Downs.  She finished second by a head in a $100K stakes race going a mile on grass.  Her speed fig was a 77 which puts her at the top and likes to rate in the middle of the pack which may work out perfectly.  The interesting play here is that her new trainer has an excellent record with dirt to turf, and she gets Chantal Sutherland today.   Lastly, the show horse in her maiden win, won next out by 9, she could surprise us all today.   

Selection: 

2 - 4 - 8

I will not be posting the Balmoral Pick 4 Selection this evening due traveling on business.