OptixEQ Handicapping Helper for Kentucky Downs (September 3)

OptixEQ's Emily Gullikson has been kind enough to provide one detailed race preview and picks for all of the other races for Saturday's opening day of the meet at Kentucky Downs, HANA's #1 rated track.  We will be posting these for each race date.

The Horseplayer Monthly from HANA also has tips, hard-to-find stats, and analysis for the meet at Kentucky Downs.  You can read that issue for free here.

KENTUCKY DOWNS 9-03-16 RACE 3

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6.5F TURF

These are my favorite types of races to get involved in as a horseplayer; one that features lightly-raced, young improving horses, and a race with a vulnerable favorite. 

As a team member, and OptixEQ user, a lot of the work assessing the favorite in these baby races is done through OptixNotes. The OptixPlot is a valuable tool; in this case I will rely more on the notes with a number of first-time starters and horses making their second or third start that do not have a lot of experience to determine their run style. 

Preparing for this meet, I went back through the OptixPlot Result tab to look at past results and search for patterns. Generally, the track was fair to all running styles. The outside posts did seem to be more favorable, especially in routes, but I would not let that deter me from making a bet on an inside runner. Getting back to this race, the morning line and likely post time favorite is the #3 MacCorleot (3-1 ML) for Wesley Ward and David Flores. 

VULNERABLE/SOFT FAVORITE

#3 MacCorleot (3-1) is making her third start and first start on the turf. One of the first things that stands out to me is the time between starts. I understand with young horses issues can arise as they mature and trainers need to back off. This gal was a vet scratch June 22^nd at Belmont in a six furlong turf race. She returned a few weeks following the scratch in a race taken off the turf and has a steady pattern since. Perhaps the issues are behind her, still I hesitate at a short price. Both of her races have been just above average, earning a B- grade. Most winning grades are B’s with exceptional performances B+ and higher. Both of her races are free from excuses, and the note taker, in this case me, did not include any projections to consider her to make a forward move. Another even effort, and even with marginal step forward, she looks to earn a minor award at best; I will look elsewhere for a win candidate. 

#12 Lovely Bernadette (7-2) will take considerable tote action as well. She ran a solid debut after hopping at the start and getting pushed early for position before flattening out late. Reasonable improvement to be expected, and physically I see no reason why she should not handle turf. In a big full field such as this, there are just a few other runners that interest me more. 

CONTENDERS

#1 Market Top (12-1), on debut also B- grade with keywords, BTL (better than looked), TROUBLE_START, TRAFFIC, PREP?, and IMPROVE?. The xC (extended comment) reads: shuffled back at start, dropped inside, in tight between horses, took a hold off heels, raced inside behind and between horses along rail, moved out heading into far turn, swung wide and closed willing, stronger finish might have finished better position, continued out with good energy; might have been given start for new connections minimal action on tote off 10-1 ML. She is another filly making her third start and cutting back in distance, which should set her up well for today’s distance. She earned an OptixFig of 63 in last and with IMPROVE is not far behind MacCorleot's best 70 from last race. 

#5 Unfading Beauty (6-1), another cutting back making her fourth career start. One thing I noticed watching her race and giving a BTL keyword was how the race seemed to be dominated late by horses from off the pace and how well she stayed on compared to other horses that were forwardly placed. The OptixEQ figure maker saw it similarly and assigned her with a 78 OptixFig, the fastest in today’s field. 

#10 Billboard (5-1) is a first-time starter from Ben Colebrook. First-time starting 2-year-olds competed successfully last year and can be considered. Colebrook himself had success at Kentucky Downs last year, notably with his future stake winner Surgical Strike (broke maiden here in second career start.) In 2016, he has been sending out live 2-year-old first-time starters all over the country. When he teams up with James Graham, these horses show a positive $6.08 ROI. Two of the horses he’s sent out with Graham aboard have also been for this owner, posting a win and a second. Like Billboard, both of those runners did not debut on Lasix. One of the more important factors I look for in trainer with first-time starters, along with their win percentage, is their ability to get a horse to run “par” on debut. Colebrook is capable on all accounts, and this is a horse that must remain in the mix of contenders. 

#11 Little Irishdancer (10-1), on debut earned many keywords SLOG, TACTIC, NO PUSH, X_BIAS, IMPROVE?, and PREP?. xC: She lost her footing at the start, broke well behind the field on speed-favoring track, allowed to cruise behind the field, after the first quarter she showed run, doing it on her own; capable of much better, has some run and ability, should handle turf as well. We have not seen the best of her, and making her second career start one I am looking forward to.

The rest of the runners, not including the also-eligibles, look BELOW and will not be considered as win candidates.

More from OPTIXNOTES and OPTIXPLOT can be found at OptixEQ.com. 

OTHER SELECTIONS 

R1: 10-1-8-4
R2: 4-3-5-8

R4: 8 (best bet)

R5: 8-2-6-11

R6: 3-6-11-4

R7: 5-8

R8: 6-5-2-12

R9: 3-7-10

R10: 11-3-5-4-10

Canterbury Park Handicapper Helper for September 1 - Another Pick 5 Carryover

We've entered the final month of racing at Canterbury Park, with two more Thursdays to follow after tonight.  There is an eight-race card on tap, and there is another pick 5 carryover this week ($1,696), beginning in race four.  Pick 4's are also available starting in races one and five.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

 

Brian Kohn (Canterbury Park Racing Operations Coordinator)

Race 1 Selections: 1/2/5
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 1; $2 Exacta ($4 total) 1/2, 5

Race 2 Selections:  4/7/2
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 7; $1 Double ($6 total) 4, 7/1, 4, 6

Race 3 Selections:  1/6/4
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 1; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 1, 4, 6

Race 4 Selections:  5/1/3
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta ($4 total) 5/1, 3; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 5/1, 3, 6/1, 3, 6

Race 5 Selections:  6/1/3
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 1, 3, 6; $1 Double ($6 total) 1, 3, 6/4, 8

Race 6 Selections:  4/8/10
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 8; 50-cent Pick 3 ($3 total) 4, 8/5/1, 4, 5

Race 7 Selections:  5/10/8
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta ($4 total) 5/8, 10; $2 Double ($6 total) 5/1, 4, 5

Race 8 Selections:  4/5/1
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 1, 4, 5; $1 Trifecta Box ($6 total) 1, 4, 5 

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 1/2/4
2: 1/2/7
3: 4/6/9
4: 1/3/2
5: 6/1/3
6: 4/9/8
7: 10/5/1
8: 8/9/3

Pick 5:
4: 1
5: 1235678
6: 4
7: 125810
8: 89

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Jeff Platt of Jcapper software also has agreed to post his core selections, directly from the software.

Here are his power ratings and a pick 5 ticket

1-1,5,3
2-2,4,1
3-8,6,4
4-3,1,2
5-1,6,5
6-10,4,9
7-10,5,1
8-8,2,9

And a pick 5 ticket for the carryover

4-3,7
5-All
6-4,10
7-A-5 B-10
8-A-8 B-2

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Woodbine Pick 5 Analysis: Do Takeout Rates Make a Difference?

After reading Jeff's post about the different sized exacta pools at Del Mar and Saratoga, we at HANA HQ got to thinking -- What about the Woodbine Pick 5?

The Woodbine Pick 5 was created in 2015 for Thoroughbred racing and the following year, was created for the standardbreds. While Woodbine charges the high 25% takeout rate for the Thoroughbred Pick 5, the standardbred Pick 5 is taxed at an industry normal 15%.

What's been happening? The chart below illustrates some random days, with a ratio of pick 5 to the 25% takeout pick 4's.

Since September of 2015 until this month, the Woodbine pick 5 for Thoroughbreds at 25% takeout attracts approximately 40-45% the money the pick 4 at 25% takeout does.

In January of 2016, the standardbred pick 5 at 15% takeout started slow, with near the same pick 5 to pick 4 money ratio as the Thoroughbreds.

Since that time, however, it has grown rapidly. This month it's over 75%, and on certain Monday's, where the standardbreds are really the only major product to bet, the pick 5 is attracting almost as much as the pick 4 is. In fact, some days the pick 5 for harness racing attracts more money than it does for the Thoroughbreds, who are, of course, a much higher handled signal.

It is interesting that it took some time for the pick 5 to challenge the pick 4's with the standardbreds. It is often said value takes time to show itself, but sooner or later it does.

Does takeout - i.e. size of payoffs - play a part in the above statistics? It probably does.

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for August 25 - Pick 5 Carryover

Eight races are on the docket tonight at Canterbury Park, and for the first Thursday this meet, all of them are Thoroughbred races.  Conditions this morning were listed as fast and good, so there's finally been a break with the weather as well.  The featured wager on tonight's program is the pick 5, which begins in race four with a $2,227 carryover.  There are also two pick 4s, one commencing in the opener and another one starting in race five.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Craig Milkowski (Chief Figure Maker for TimeformUS)

Race 6:

Unstoppable Colby (#6)

-TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a pace scenario favoring horses on or near the front; projected second early on turn back from mile race
-106 Speed Figure in last race is 11 points higher than any other horse in the field
-Earned that figure while battling for the early lead on a track that was favoring off the pace types

3-1 on ML

 

Brian Kohn (Canterbury Park Racing Operations Coordinator)

Race 1 Selections:  10/6/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta ($4 total) 10/1, 6; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 10/1, 2, 6/1, 2, 6

Race 2 Selections:4/7/2
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 4; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 2, 4, 7

Race 3 Selections:  8/3/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 8; $1 Double ($6 total) 1, 3, 8/4, 6

Race 4 Selections:  6/4/3
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 6; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 3, 4, 6

Race 5 Selections:  4/6/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 4; $1 Exacta ($4 total) 4/1, 2, 6, 8

Race 6 Selections:  5/7/6
Suggested Wagers:  $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 5, 6, 7; 50-cent pick 3 ($3 total) 5, 6, 7/5, 8/7

Race 7 Selections:  8/5/9
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 5, 8; $1 Double ($4 total) 5, 8/4, 7

Race 8 Selections:  7/4/3
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 7; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 4, 7/4, 7/1, 3, 5

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 7/2/6
2: 1/2/4
3: 3/12/4
4: 6/3/4
5: 8/1/4
6: 1/5/3
7: 8/1/9
8: 6/3/7

Pick 5
4: 3456
5: 8
6: 1356
7: 8
8: 34567

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Mid-Summer 2016 Handle Update Del Mar vs. Saratoga

In October 2014 I attended a CHRB Parimutuel and ADW Committee Meeting at Los Al and presented a spreadsheet that indicated an alarming trend:

In Win-Place-Show pools where both tracks have approximate level takeout rates:

During the summer of 2014 Del Mar handled 82.76 percent as much as Saratoga did.

But in the Exacta pool where Del Mar has a significantly higher takeout rate than Saratoga does:

Del Mar handled just 54.79 percent as much as Saratoga did.

I also presented the argument that if Del Mar's Exacta's takeout rate had been in line with New York's Exacta takeout rate: They likely would have handled about 82.76 percent as much as Saratoga in their Exacta pools like they did in Win-Place-Show pools.

I also presented a lost revenue calculation suggesting Del Mar was suffering an opportunity cost of approximately $10k per exacta pool because their exacta takeout at 22.68 percent was and still is out of line with New York's exacta takeout rate of $18.50 percent.

After I presented my findings, a number of speakers representing track management and the TOC took the podium and told the Commissioners of the CHRB that although my numbers might appear alarming they weren't too concerned - but that they would monitor this trend going forward.

I posted about this on Paceadvantage. Anyone interested in the numbers or more detail can read about this at the following link:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1849170&postcount=10


Fast forward two years to summer 2016.

Right now as I type this the premier race meets for both Del Mar and Saratoga are currently underway.

This morning I ran a similar Del Mar vs. Saratoga handle and revenue comparison.

I've begun compiling a spreadsheet that I plan on presenting to the CHRB after the summer 2016 meets for both Del Mar and Saratoga have concluded.

For those of you who might be curious about the 2016 numbers - here's how they shake out so far:

First, all numbers presented below are on an average per race basis and reflect races run from opening day at both meets through Monday August 22, 2016.

From a total revenue standpoint, the trend that I pointed out to the CHRB, TOC, and Track Management back in October of 2014 appears to have worsened.

Two years ago in 2014:

In Win-Place-Show pools where both tracks have approximate level takeout rates:

Del Mar handled 82.76 percent as much as Saratoga did.

In the Exacta pool where Del Mar has a significantly higher takeout rate:

Del Mar handled just 54.79 percent as much as Saratoga did.

The opportunity cost or lost revenue number was about $10,090.00 per exacta pool.

So far this summer in 2016:

In Win-Place-Show pools where both tracks have approximate level takeout rates:

Del Mar is now handling 75.82 percent as much as Saratoga.

In the Exacta pool where Del Mar has a significantly higher takeout rate:

Del Mar is now handling just 47.41 percent as much as Saratoga!

The opportunity cost or lost revenue number is now running about $12,400.00 per exacta pool.

Earth to CHRB...

On second thought, never mind.

Under-performing exacta pools and millions in lost purse money are nothing to be concerned about.

Jeff Platt
President, HANA

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for August 18th

Nine races are on the card tonight at Canterbury, with only the first race being for Quarter Horses.  There is some rain in the area, so if you're playing, you'll want check track conditions and to see if they are staying on the turf.  Pick 4s are available starting in races two and six, and the pick 5 also begins in race six.  The first four races will be covered by TVG2, with the rest of the card then switching over to TVG.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Brian Kohn (Canterbury Park Racing Operations Coordinator)

Race 1 Selections: 8/4/6
Suggested Wagers:$2 Win, Place ($4 total) 8; $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 8

Race 2 Selections: 1/2/4
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 1; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 1, 2, 4

Race 3 Selections: 5/4/3
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 5; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 4, 5/4, 5/3, 6, 8

Race 4 Selections: 5/6/4
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 4, 5, 6; $1 Trifecta Box ($6 total) 4, 5, 6

Race 5 Selections:  1/5/8
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 1; $2 Exacta ($4 total) 1/5, 8

Race 6 Selections:  2/4/7
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta ($4 total) 2/4, 7; 50-cent pick 3 ($4.50 total) 2/3, 6, 7/5, 6, 7

Race 7 Selections:  7/6/3
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 7; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 3, 6, 7

Race 8 Selections: 5/6/7
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 5; $2 Double ($6 total) 5, 6, 7/4

Race 9 Selections:  4/5/6
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta ($4 total) 4/5, 6; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 4/5, 6, 8/5, 6, 8

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 8/6/4
2: 2/3/5
3: 5/4/7
4: 1/5/6
5: 5/1/8
6: 1/2/7
7: 3/5/7
8: 6/1/8
9: 6/7/1

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for August 11

Unfortunately the Twin Cities area was soaked by heavy rain last night, meaning Canterbury Park is off the turf tonight. Ten races are on the card tonight, with the first two being Quarter Horse races.  Pick 4s are available starting in races three and seven, and the pick 5 beginning in race six.  We are happy to welcome aboard Canterbury's Racing Operations Coordinator Brian Kohn, who will providing selections for the rest of the meet, starting tonight.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Brian Kohn (Canterbury Park Racing Operations Coordinator)

Race 1 Selections: 8/4/2
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 8; $1 Double ($6 total) 4, 8/4, 5, 6

Race 2 Selections: 5/4/6
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 5; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 4, 5, 6

Race 3 Selections: 7/5/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta ($4 total) 7/1, 5; $2 Double ($6 total) 7/3, 4, 10

Race 4 Selections: 3/10/4
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 3; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 3, 4, 10

Race 5 Selections:  2/6/4
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 2, 6; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 2, 6/2, 6/1, 4, 8

Race 6 Selections:  5/4/2
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta ($4 total) 5/2, 4; $2 Double ($6 total) 5/1, 3, 8

Race 7 Selections:  3/8/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 3; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 1, 3, 8

Race 8 Selections:  2/6/5
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 2; 50-cent Pick 3 ($4.50 total) 2, 5, 6/4, 5, 6/6

Race 9 Selections:  4/5/6
Suggested Wagers:  $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 4, 5, 6; $2 Double ($6 total) 4, 5, 6/6

Race 10 Selections:  6/5/2
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta ($4 total) 6/2, 5; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 6/2, 3, 5/2, 3, 5

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 4/7/8
2: 10/4/6
3: 7/4/1
4: 7/6/9
5: 3/6/4
6: 4/1/6
7: 3/8/2
8: 2/6/8
9: 4/1/5
10: 5/6/1

Early pick 4
3: 7
4: 679
5: 1346
6: 12456

Pick 5
6: 14
7: 138
8: 2
9: 12456
10: 156

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Jeff Platt of Jcapper software also has agreed to post his core selections, directly from the software.

Here are his power ratings (as noted earlier, the first two races are Quarter Horse races, so it starts in race three)

3-7,3,1
4-7,6,9
5-3,1,6
6-5,4,3
7-8,1,6
8-3,4,5
9-4,3,5
10-6,3,5

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for August 4

Tonight's handicapping primer for Canterbury Park is now available.  Ten races are coming up tonight at Canterbury, with the first two being Quarter Horse races.  All of the Thoroughbred races are on TVG, and the two Quarter Horse races are on TVG2, with pick 4s available starting in races three and seven, and the pick 5, beginning in race six.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Craig Milkowski (Chief Figure Maker for TimeformUS)

Race 5:

Sammy's Mineshaft (#6)
-Double advantage horse---last two TimeformUS Speed Figures better than other horses have run in last two by at least five points, albeit on dirt
-Proven on turf; won on Remington Park lawn and runs similar speed figures on both surfaces when in form
-Figures to make a clear early lead and has proven able to rate up front and win on both turf and dirt
9/2 on ML

 Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 3/2/6
2: 3/2/4
3: 2/4/8
4: 8/1/6
5: 4/8/5
6: 3/4/7
7: 6/8/2
8: 3/6/7
9: 5/1/2
10: 1/2/6

Early pick 4:
3: 2
4: 14568
5: 4589
6: 4

Pick 5
6: 347
7: 123568
8: 367
9: 125
10: 1

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for July 28

After the cancellation of last Thursday's card at Canterbury Park due to extreme heat, we're happy to resume the Thursday Handicapping Helper today.  Ten races are on tap tonight at Canterbury, with the first two being Quarter Horse races.  All of the Thoroughbred races are on TVG, with pick 4s available starting in races three and seven, and the pick 5, with a small carryover, beginning in race six.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Craig Milkowski (Chief Figure Maker for TimeformUS)

Horse in Focus at Canterbury on Thursday July 28

Race 3:

Life a Riley (#8)
-Third race off long layoff and improving towards best numbers; trainer 66 rating overall (TimeformUS) but 90 3rd off layoff
-Finished good closing second in dirt sprint last out while racing against strong speed bias, previously only one second in seven fast track dirt starts
-Draws third leading rider at the meet, 17% wins---big upgrade over previous rider, 5%
12/1 on ML

Candice Hare (Canterbury Park national handicapping correspondent)

R1: 2-4-7-8
R2: 8-5-4-2
R3: 9-7-3-1
R4: 10-1-7-2
R5: 5-3-2-1
R6: 8-2-5-7
R7: 3-7-1-2
R8: 4-8-1-2
R9: 3-4-5-2
R10: 5-7-3-2

Best Bet: R4 #10 English Town (10-1 ml) -- By English Channel o/o a Cape Town mare he's bred to improve for this switch to turf. Not only is he back in v non-winners, but he is in for a tag for the first time for trainer Bernell Rhone who typically spots his new acquisitions realistically.

Pick 3: R4 1,2,10 w 3,5 w 2,5,7,8

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 3/7/6
2: 5/7/9
3: 7/10/6
4: 9/7/3
5: 1/4/3
6: 7/5/2
7: 3/6/1
8: 9/6/2
9: 4/5/2
10: 3/5/7

Early pick 4
3: 267910
4: 3791012
5: 1234
6: 7

Pick 5
6: 24678
7: 3
8: 2369
9: 4
10: 3567

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Jeff Platt of Jcapper software also has agreed to post his core selections, directly from the software.

Here are his power ratings (as noted earlier, the first two races are Quarter Horse races, so it starts in race three)

3-1,6,9

4-9,7,6

5-3,2,1

6-7,5,4

7-3,7,1

8-9,2,1

9-2,3,5

10-5,6,7

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Platt Letter to Canadian Pari-Mutuel Agency

In Canada, there is a resolution with the regulator that will allow tracks to report payouts in increments that will not reflect the pool size. Jeff, on behalf of HANA and Canadian horseplayers has let the organization's thoughts be known. If you'd like to write the regulator and lend your support, please do. 

Re: Canada Gazette, Part I, Vol. 150, No. 24 — June 11. 

From: 

Jeff Platt, President

Horseplayers Association of North America

93 Campbell Road
Keswick, Virginia 22947

July 20, 2016

Mr. Baird,

I am writing you on behalf of over 3,000 members of the Horseplayers Association of North America – many of whom are Canadian – to express our profound objection to the language published in the Canada Gazette-Vol. 150, No. 24 — June 11, 2016 regarding “pay out price” definitions. 

As you know, pari-mutuel pools are finite and paid out on the sum of the pool minus takeout, divided by the amount of money in winning tickets. A ticket with a $100,000 pool after takeout with one winner holding a twenty cent ticket receives $100,000. If tracks are allowed to publish winning tickets in, for example, a $2 denomination (as proposed) the payout price shared with the public would be $1 million dollars.

This is a fictitious, made-up number. There was not one million dollars in the pool to pay out.  

This practice is clearly, we feel, anti-consumer, and should never be allowed. Another regulated business – the lottery – would (rightfully) not be able to promote and advertise a $1 winning ticket that truly paid $10 million, was $100 million at a $10 ticket denomination. Horse racing should not be allowed to do this, either. 

Pari-mutuel betting relies on regulators to protect the betting public. Promoting pools that are fiction or posting payouts that are not real strikes at the very heart of the game’s integrity. With close to $2B bet by customers in Canada, this is a very real problem that needs to be addressed. 

We propose that the language be changed to posting payouts at “the pools lowest base wager amount”, and “in no way will tracks be allowed to publish a payout greater than the money in the pool.”

We believe that will solve the problem, for an issue that has gone on for too long. 

Sincerely,

Jeff Platt

President, HANA

Handicapping Helper for Canterbury Park - Thursday, July 14

The weekly handicapping helper for Thursday, July 14's program at Canterbury Park is now available.  Nine races are on tap tonight at Canterbury, with the first two being Quarter Horse races.  All seven Thoroughbred races are on TVG tonight, with pick 4s available starting in races three and six, and the pick 5 beginning in race five.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Craig Milkowski (Chief Figure Maker for TimeformUS)

Horse in Focus at Canterbury on Thursday July 14

Race 9:

Congratulate Me (#6)

-TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a clear early lead in a race favoring horses on or near the front
-Third race off short layoff; back to back 100 Speed Figures after layoff, previous top only 78
-Outside post position should help ensure clean trip with a good break
5/2 on ML

Candice Hare (Canterbury Park national handicapping correspondent)

R1: 5-6-7-2
R2: 1-3-4-5
R3: 5-6-3-2
R4: 2-8-6-7
R5: 9-8-6-2
R6: 2-1-5-3
R7: 5-6-2-1
R8: 1-2-3-7
R9: 6-1-5-4

Pick 3: R1 5,6 w 1,3,4,5 w 5,6

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 3/4/1

2: 3/6/4
3: 7/2/1
4: 3/8/6
5: 2/8/7
6: 7/1/3
7: 5/1/6
8: 1/6/2
9: 5/2/6

Early pick 4
3: 7
4: 368
5: 2678
6: 1237

Pick 5
5: 2678
6: 1237
7: 156
8: 1
9: 256

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Jeff Platt of Jcapper software also has agreed to post his core selections, directly from the software.

Here are his power ratings (as noted earlier, the first two races are Quarter Horse races, so it starts in race three)

3-8,6,3
4-8,4,2
5-8,5,2
6-2,7,1
7-6,5,1
8-6,5,2
9-2,5,6

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach