The Horseplayer Monthly from HANA also has tips, hard-to-find stats, and analysis for the meet at Kentucky Downs. You can read that issue for free here.
KENTUCKY DOWNS 9-03-16 RACE 3
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6.5F TURF
These are my favorite types of races to get involved in as a
horseplayer; one that features lightly-raced, young improving horses, and a race
with a vulnerable favorite.
As a team member, and OptixEQ user, a lot of the work
assessing the favorite in these baby races is done through OptixNotes. The
OptixPlot is a valuable tool; in this case I will rely more on the notes with a
number of first-time starters and horses making their second or third start that do not have a lot of experience to determine their run style.
Preparing for
this meet, I went back through the OptixPlot Result tab to look at past results
and search for patterns. Generally, the track was fair to all running styles.
The outside posts did seem to be more favorable, especially in routes, but I
would not let that deter me from making a bet on an inside runner. Getting back
to this race, the morning line and likely post time favorite is the #3
MacCorleot (3-1 ML) for Wesley Ward and David Flores.
VULNERABLE/SOFT
FAVORITE
#3 MacCorleot (3-1) is making her third start and first
start on the turf. One of the first things that stands out to me is the time
between starts. I understand with young horses issues can arise as they mature
and trainers need to back off. This gal was a vet scratch June 22nd
at Belmont in a six furlong turf race. She returned a few weeks following the
scratch in a race taken off the turf and has a steady pattern since. Perhaps
the issues are behind her, still I hesitate at a short price. Both of her races
have been just above average, earning a B- grade. Most winning grades are B’s
with exceptional performances B+ and higher. Both of her races are free from
excuses, and the note taker, in this case me, did not include any projections to
consider her to make a forward move. Another even effort, and even with
marginal step forward, she looks to earn a minor award at best; I will look
elsewhere for a win candidate.
#12 Lovely Bernadette (7-2) will take considerable tote
action as well. She ran a solid debut after hopping at the start and getting
pushed early for position before flattening out late. Reasonable improvement to
be expected, and physically I see no reason why she should not handle turf. In
a big full field such as this, there are just a few other runners that interest
me more.
CONTENDERS
#1 Market Top (12-1), on debut also B- grade with keywords,
BTL (better than looked), TROUBLE_START, TRAFFIC, PREP?, and IMPROVE?. The xC
(extended comment) reads: shuffled back at start, dropped inside, in tight
between horses, took a hold off heels, raced inside behind and between horses
along rail, moved out heading into far turn, swung wide and closed willing,
stronger finish might have finished better position, continued out with good
energy; might have been given start for new connections minimal action on tote
off 10-1 ML. She is another filly making her third start and cutting back in
distance, which should set her up well for today’s distance. She earned an
OptixFig of 63 in last and with IMPROVE is not far behind MacCorleot's best 70
from last race.
#5 Unfading Beauty (6-1), another cutting back making her fourth career start. One thing I noticed watching her race and giving a BTL keyword
was how the race seemed to be dominated late by horses from off the pace and
how well she stayed on compared to other horses that were forwardly placed. The
OptixEQ figure maker saw it similarly and assigned her with a 78 OptixFig, the
fastest in today’s field.
#10 Billboard (5-1) is a first-time starter from Ben
Colebrook. First-time starting 2-year-olds competed successfully last year
and can be considered. Colebrook himself had success at Kentucky Downs last year, notably
with his future stake winner Surgical Strike (broke maiden here in second
career start.) In 2016, he has been sending out live 2-year-old first-time
starters all over the country. When he teams up with James Graham, these horses
show a positive $6.08 ROI. Two of the horses he’s sent out with Graham aboard have
also been for this owner, posting a win and a second. Like Billboard, both of
those runners did not debut on Lasix. One of the more important factors I look
for in trainer with first-time starters, along with their win percentage, is
their ability to get a horse to run “par” on debut. Colebrook is capable on all
accounts, and this is a horse that must remain in the mix of contenders.
#11 Little Irishdancer (10-1), on debut earned many keywords
SLOG, TACTIC, NO PUSH, X_BIAS, IMPROVE?, and PREP?. xC: She lost her footing at
the start, broke well behind the field on speed-favoring track, allowed to
cruise behind the field, after the first quarter she showed run, doing it on her
own; capable of much better, has some run and ability, should handle turf as
well. We have not seen the best of her, and making her second career start one
I am looking forward to.
The rest of the runners, not including the also-eligibles,
look BELOW and will not be considered as win candidates.
OTHER SELECTIONS
R1: 10-1-8-4
R2: 4-3-5-8
R2: 4-3-5-8
R4: 8 (best bet)
R5: 8-2-6-11
R6: 3-6-11-4
R7: 5-8
R8: 6-5-2-12
R9: 3-7-10
R10: 11-3-5-4-10
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