Weekend Handicapping: Another walk in the Park for Harve de Grace

Why is Saratoga such a difficult track to handicap?  I‘ve struggled finding that rhythm with this track, Del Mar and Monmouth I have a feel for those surfaces, but something about Saratoga just haunts me.  Not one to back away from a challenge, I’m going to take on the Woodward (G1) today at Saratoga.   This race is for 3YO’s and up, going over the dirt for a mile and a eighth, with a purse of $750,000.   As of this writing there have been no scratches.  What makes this an interesting race is having Havre de Grace take on the boys, along with some fine horses coming back from the Whitney.  So here we go …

Contenders:

#6  Havre de Grace ML 8/5:  Without a doubt she will be favorite and the question is from a betting standpoint do you lay or play her?  This Larry Jones filly has won at every Graded level, at this distance and is 12 for 12 ITM, with a 50% win rate.  She’s had a nice rest since that close call to Blind Luck at Delaware.  She can handle the Saratoga dirt and looks perfect for this race.  It looks like Rule and Mambo Meister will gun to the front and she will sit on their hip and take them out.

#8 Giant Oak ML 8/1:  I know this is a bit of a stretch here, but feel he is rounding back into form.  Was a distant third in the Whitney to Tizway and Flat Out, but posted a nice Beyer in that race and if you notice every time Bridgmohan has been in the saddle he has been close.  He has won at this level and might surprise the front runners down the stretch.     

#7 Flat Out ML 5/2:  Had that big win in the Suburban and then got bogged down in a nice effort in the Whitney.  There are no questions about distance or class level, it comes down to how does Solis ride this lightly raced 5YO?  Looking at the race shape, I’d say he has to stay close to Havre de Grace, if he slips back like in the Whitney it will be tough sledding trying to catch her.  He has the speed and form to get it done, but will need a near perfect trip.

Dark Horses:

#4 Rule ML 5/1:  Many will have him picked to win this race. He has the ability but seems to be an in and outer, never knowing which Rule will show up.  Had a strong 2YO campaign but has been really inconsistent since, with only one win last out since turning 4.  He posted a big Beyer and had to crank it up to win that race, workouts suggest he is ready, but just not buying it.  Could be wrong here but thinking Saratoga will swallow him up today.

#3 Mission Impazible ML 10/1:  This is the Pletcher horse that I believe is dangerous in this race.  Not one to win consistently but is always near at the end.  He didn’t run his race in the Whitney and would look for him to be up near the front.  The big change is Johnny V riding him and that could make all the difference.  Looks like a bouncer with his speed fig’s so that would suggest today might be a big day if you like to play form cycle angles. 

“Bombs Away”:

#10 Mambo Meister ML 10/1:  The oldest one in the field at 6, is a top winner at the stakes level and has won 3 in a row.  He is one of those hard knocking Calder horses that show up and can steal the show.  Interesting Beyer pattern of three strong efforts and then flattens, so today would suggest a flat day, but the pace might work to his advantage.  He will lay in the middle and if the others burn themselves up he could have that window to take it.  Has won at the G3 level and gut feel on this one.

Selections:

6 - 8 - 7

Will be posting the Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 Selections at Balmoral tonight later today at  http://www.blogger.com/home

Weekend Handicapping: Travers a "Graveyard of Favorites"?

I finally decided for the Weekend Handicap to focus on the Travers.   What I like about this race is we have a rematch of the Haskell, a couple of shippers and a handful of lightly raced 3YO’s that have been coming along nicely.  This mix usually spells an upset and what have they been calling Saratoga?  “The Graveyard of Favorites”.

So let’s get started,  going to look at three contenders, an outsider and the “Bombs Away” choice.   When you look at this field you notice there is only one deep closer (JW Blue), one true speed horse (Shackleford) and the rest are pressers.  That makes for an interesting pace scenario and when going this distance of a mile and quarter pace will be everything.  It will be fun to see who goes with Shackleford, would be surprised if they let him take off.

Contenders:

1.        #7 Coil  ML 3/1:  Seems to have gotten lost in the Stay Thirsty hoopla and the “how good” is Ruler on Ice and Shackleford debate.  Baffert has one heck of a 3YO here and fits this spot nicely.  Has won at the G1 and G3 level and near miss at the Swaps(G2).  In the Haskell (G1) showed how tough he is coming off a bad start to take down the front running Shackleford.   His Beyer’s have been three consecutive 96’s which is nice and his workouts tightened up.  The only concern I have is there has been some grumbling from the Kentucky and West Coast trainers that their horses haven’t liked the Saratoga surface.  Not sure if that is anecdotal or not but might be a factor.  One thing for certain, Coil will be at the wire no matter what.

2.       # 10 Shackleford  ML 9/2:  Here is the speed and we all know it.  I’m not concerned about the distance that many are, this all comes down to the pace.  If Castanon rides him like he did in the Haskell and Preakness he will have a good chance to win this race.  What I really like is his form, notice he has developed a three step improvement pattern in his Beyer’s.  This race would be the third race from his off number at the Belmont.  Have a sneaky suspicion he may get it done today.

3.       #9 Stay Thirsty ML 5/2:  I know he won the Gotham(G3) and the Jim Dandy (G2) and is a Pletcher horse.  Had a monster 106 last out and seems to be in a groove right now.   What I see is a 3YO that has a pretty consistent bounce pattern in his Beyer’s, his two Graded wins were over horses of less caliber and when he has faced this bunch he has been beaten soundly (excluding the Belmont on a sloppy day).  He will be in the hunt but don’t see him taking it from Coil or Shackleford. He might confirm the "Graveyard" hype.

Outsiders:

1.       #4 Ruler on Ice ML 6/1:   Not sure what to make of him.  2 of his 3 wins have come over off tracks; his Beyer’s are high and low and show no pattern.  Even his racing style is inconsistent.  He can go the distance and has raced well against good company.  The pace is going to determine if he is there at the end.  He is a classic “what if” horse, if everything fall’s  in place, and he sticks close, he might just swing by them all.  Dangerous in the race but not sure he can cover the first three.

“Bombs Away’:

#6 Raison d’Etat ML 10/1:  I admit I’m a sucker for lightly raced 3YO with great pedigrees stepping up in class.  He may be way over his head today, but his Beyer’s are moving up nicely, workouts have been crisp and have to respect Bill Mott when brings a horse in to a field like this.   I also like Eddie Castro in these races, and to that point he switched off Rattlesnake Bridge to stay with this one.    Not sure if there was a prior commitment, but just an angle to think about.

Selection:  7 – 10 – 9

Tonight I will be blogging the selections for tonight’s  $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral.  http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/