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Tuesday, September 5, 2017

OptixEQ Handicaps Kentucky Downs for September 6, 2017

After a short delay to the start of the meet due to a rainout last Saturday, Kentucky Downs, HANA's #1 rated track, begins their five-day meet on Wednesday.  They will race again on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and finish up the meet next Thursday (September 14).

As she did last year, Emily Gullikson from OptixEQ will be providing us some handicapping insight on the blog for each of the race cards, and her preview of Wednesday's opening day card is as follows:

KENTUCKY DOWNS 9-06-17
Opening day is always a bit tougher playing Kentucky Downs. Handicapping this unique course, it helps to have an understanding of how the track will play. I was able to look back at the OptixPLOT results from last year to help sift through the noise of the big full fields. In the route races, horses need to have some type of positional speed. Mid-pack/closer types seemed to be at a disadvantage, and when they run back can be upgraded off efforts as necessary. In sprints, the course played fair in terms of pace handicapping and mid-pack types were not as compromised as they were in routes. I will definitely modify this as necessary and identify any track trends after opening day.

Note: OptixPlot RESULTS tab is very helpful for visual running lines to see where the winners were on the OptixPlot prior to the race, and then comparing that to the RESULTSGraf. This is a very tricky track to handicap with the course configuration and horses shipping from all over. These are great tools to help with the handicapping process.

SELECTIONS:
R1: 12-9-2-8-1
12 is legit; included other numbers if you want to spread or include underneath

R2: 6-9
Prefer some fresh faces in this spot. have seen enough of the 8 at Saratoga, she looks to need softer. 6 was entered with Leparoux named at Saratoga in a turf sprint and did not draw into the race. 4-10-11-12 capable to show more with the experience and surface change, just did not see enough on video to endorse for the win.

R3: 4-2-5-3

R4: 1-8-10-12

R5: 5-10-2-4
Thought this effort from QUEEN ANNE’S LACE was very good. She was a bit ignored off the 9-2 morning line, so if that was a prep and she has a move forward (will need) she is a definite play.

R6: 4-12 (legit) 1-3-8-10 (underneath)

R7: 15-16-9-3-5 (should the AE draw in they must be included, especially 15)

R8: 5-2-3-6

R9: 13-3-9-6-12

R10: 8-10-7-2-15

More from OPTIXNOTES and OPTIXPLOT can be found at OptixEQ.com.

Twitter: @Mayhemily1 and @OptixEQ

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