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Friday, July 14, 2017

Previewing Saturday's Mandatory Hi-5 Payout at Hawthorne

Mike from Hawthorne has written a detailed analysis for tomorrow's big super high five carryover for harness players at Hawthorne. Good luck to those playing and thank you Mike -- 

Hawthorne High Five Mandatory Payout - Saturday, July 15th – Race 10
Post time 10:45 central time
(Following the final race of the Meadowlands Pace Program)

The largest pool in harness racing this Saturday night will be in Chicago as Hawthorne has a mandatory payout on the High Five wager, with a carryover of $224,190.  The minimum wager for the bet is 20 cents.  In the likelihood the final pool is less than $1,345,140 there will be more money paid out than wagered.

What can we expect the pool to be?

In 2016 the Meadowlands had a mandatory High Five payout on Pace Night.  A carryover of $267,769 generated $747,893 in new money wagered.   The new money was roughly 2.8 times the carryover.  A similar ratio for the Hawthorne mandatory pay out would result in a total pool of $850,000.

The chart listed below clearly indicates the powerful advantage the players could have.  I need not remind you wagering opportunities like this don’t come often.

  Pool       New Money    Takeout        Net Pool        Surplus     Player advantage
   500,000      275,810         55,162          444,838       169,028            61 %
   600,000      375,810         75,162          524,838       149,028            39 %
   700,000      475,810         95,162          604,838       129,028            27 %
   800,000      575,810       115,162          684,838       109,028            18 %
   900,000      675,810       135,162          764,838         89,028            13 %
1,000,000      775,810       155,162          844,838         69,028              8 %
1,345,140   1,120,950      224,190       1,120,950              0                    0

For those of you that are new to Hawthorne, you catch a break.  There are no shippers in this race. All the participants have been racing over the Hawthorne oval for at least their last two starts.  Hawthorne sports a home stretch of 1320 feet, by far the longest in North American racing.  This allows deep closers  a realistic chance to be effective.   The field consists of twelve starters, ten horses on the gate with two trailers.


THE PARTICIPANTS
1-      Sweet Donna’s Girl   Comes off of a very solid effort in previous start, following the winner (#4 Back Stock).  Has hit the board two of her last three starts at this level.  The question is – how just aggressive Carpenter will be from the rail position.
2-      Naty   Coming into this race with very solid form.  Last week she was the victim of poor cover, closing nicely to finish fourth.  Two starts back she was the betting favorite at this level, responding with a late closing victory.  Post position two in this 12 horse field is a tricky spot.  Naty will likely start with a trailer behind her, potentially forcing Wilfong to leave for position.
3-      Rocknroll Hoochcoo   This lass appears to be the likely favorite.  Although she’s been no better than 6th in her last three starts, the two level drop should be to her liking.  Significant post relief combined with looking at her fourth start back, she beat a better field than this while parked the entire mile.  Trainer Dane May is enjoying a great Hawthorne meet.  Factoring all of the above, this filly will be the one that most bettors will rely on.
4-      Back Stock  Last week she landed a perfect second over trip to score an overdue victory at odds of 5-1. Returning at the same level combined with a potential contentious pace, puts her in position to be a big player again.
5-      Cheekie   Past performance show her last win at this level on May 20th.  After taking on better competition her next four starts, she returned to this level again and was a fast closing third at odds of 25-1.  I have to consider her.
6-      If You Say So She might be a bit of reach for me.  This is her fourth start off of a layoff and has been no better than fifth since her return.  Two starts back she finished a courageous fifth considering she was parked the entire mile.  Some chance, but one can’t use everyone.
7-      Powerful Pulse This mare should garner a lot of respect.  She didn’t fire her last start however tonight she has the services of Hawthorne’s leading driver Casey Leonard.  Her previous five starts saw her in the company of mares at a level or two better than this field tonight.  Her best can win it.
8-      Backwoods Barbie   Barbie fits with these gals, but will need an extremely fast first half to set up her late closing kick.  She never found racing room in her last off of a very moderate pace.  If others mix it up on the front end, she’ll by coming late.
9-      Alwayssmoothraigin   Strictly a long shot from out here.  Breaking at the start last week she lost all chance.  Her second-place finish was in a shorter field of eight.  Tonight’s 12-horse field will be tough to overcome.
10-   Rocknrol’s Image   I believe she is the best horse in the race.  In my opinion, this is the softest company she has faced all year.  Combine that with her new pilot, Oosting and she will attract a lot of attention.  The disclaimer is ….  she hasn’t raced in four weeks, something she will have to overcome along with 10 post in this bulky field of 12. She will be on most of my tickets.
11-   Bling   If you like playing the drop in class angle, this mare should be your price.  The other two droppers (3&10) will be two of the favorites.  Bling returns to the level that she beat as the public’s choice two starts ago.  As one of the two trailers in the race, she’ll need some luck.  This could be her lucky night if this eleven year old mare can fire from post eleven.
12-   Sister’s Keeper This gal’s last three starts have been at this level, in two of which she finished second.  I can’t leave her off my tickets. If she somehow finds a trip from here she will be a factor at a big price.
Top Contenders:
3-7-10-11-4-5
Common Races:
July 8th Race 13                                                  1-4-6-8
July 8th Race 12                                                  2-5-7
July 8th Race 11  (2 levels higher)                      3-11
July 1st Race 10                                                  9-12

Best of luck to all as this is quite a race and an opportunity to reward the bettor!

This is why you should bet this race –

Very likely the payout will exceed the money wagered           

More importantly, Hawthorne is a track that does not have slot machine revenue.  They charge a reasonable amount for their signal, offers guaranteed pools and three 15% wagers every racing night.
Hawthorneracecourse.com offers free live streaming of the races.

United States Trotting Association - ustrotting.com offers free program pages for all guaranteed pools.

Overcoming many obstacles, Hawthorne handled in excess of $1,000,000 last Saturday and Sunday.  They now offer by far the largest guaranteed pool in the United States this year.

This is a track worthy of your support.

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