Mike from Hawthorne
has written a detailed analysis for tomorrow's big super high five carryover
for harness players at Hawthorne. Good luck to those playing and thank you Mike
--
Hawthorne High Five Mandatory Payout
- Saturday, July 15th – Race 10
Post time 10:45 central time
(Following the final race of the
Meadowlands Pace Program)
The largest pool in harness racing this Saturday night will
be in Chicago as Hawthorne has a mandatory payout on the High Five wager, with
a carryover of $224,190. The minimum
wager for the bet is 20 cents. In the likelihood
the final pool is less than $1,345,140 there will be more money paid out than
wagered.
What can we expect the pool to be?
In 2016 the Meadowlands had a mandatory High Five payout on Pace
Night. A carryover of $267,769 generated
$747,893 in new money wagered. The new
money was roughly 2.8 times the carryover.
A similar ratio for the Hawthorne mandatory pay out would result in a
total pool of $850,000.
The chart listed below clearly indicates the powerful
advantage the players could have. I need
not remind you wagering opportunities like this don’t come often.
Pool New Money
Takeout Net
Pool Surplus
Player advantage
500,000
275,810
55,162
444,838
169,028
61 %
600,000
375,810
75,162
524,838
149,028 39 %
700,000
475,810
95,162 604,838
129,028 27 %
800,000
575,810
115,162
684,838
109,028 18 %
900,000
675,810
135,162
764,838
89,028 13 %
1,000,000
775,810
155,162
844,838
69,028
8 %
1,345,140 1,120,950
224,190
1,120,950
0
0
For those of you that are new to Hawthorne, you catch a
break. There are no shippers in this
race. All the participants have been racing over the Hawthorne oval for at
least their last two starts. Hawthorne
sports a home stretch of 1320 feet, by far the longest in North American
racing. This allows deep closers a realistic chance to be effective. The field consists of twelve starters, ten
horses on the gate with two trailers.
THE PARTICIPANTS
1-
Sweet Donna’s Girl
Comes off of a very
solid effort in previous start, following the winner (#4 Back Stock). Has hit the board two of her last three starts at
this level. The question is – how just
aggressive Carpenter will be from the rail position.
2-
Naty
Coming into this race with very solid form. Last week she was the victim of poor cover,
closing nicely to finish fourth.
Two starts back she was the betting favorite at this level, responding
with a late closing victory. Post
position two in this 12 horse field is a tricky spot. Naty will likely start with a trailer behind
her, potentially forcing Wilfong to leave for position.
3-
Rocknroll Hoochcoo
This lass appears to
be the likely favorite. Although she’s
been no better than 6th in her last three starts, the two level drop
should be to her liking. Significant
post relief combined with looking at her fourth start back, she beat a better
field than this while parked the entire mile.
Trainer Dane May is enjoying a great Hawthorne meet. Factoring all of the above, this filly will
be the one that most bettors will rely on.
4-
Back Stock
Last week she landed a perfect second over trip to score an overdue
victory at odds of 5-1. Returning at the same level combined with a potential
contentious pace, puts her in position to be a big player again.
5-
Cheekie Past performance show her last win at
this level on May 20th. After
taking on better competition her next four starts, she returned to this level
again and was a fast closing third at odds of 25-1. I have to consider her.
6-
If You Say So She
might be a bit of reach for me. This is
her fourth start off of a layoff and has been no better than fifth since her
return. Two starts back she finished a
courageous fifth considering she was parked the entire mile. Some chance, but one can’t use everyone.
7-
Powerful Pulse This mare should garner a lot of
respect. She didn’t fire her last start
however tonight she has the services of Hawthorne’s leading driver Casey
Leonard. Her previous five starts saw
her in the company of mares at a level or two better than this field
tonight. Her best can win it.
8-
Backwoods Barbie Barbie fits with these gals, but will need
an extremely fast first half to set up her late closing kick. She never found racing room in her last off
of a very moderate pace. If others mix
it up on the front end, she’ll by coming late.
9-
Alwayssmoothraigin Strictly a long shot from out here. Breaking at the start last week she lost all
chance. Her second-place finish
was in a shorter field of eight.
Tonight’s 12-horse field will be tough to overcome.
10-
Rocknrol’s Image I believe she is the best horse in the race. In my opinion, this is the softest company
she has faced all year. Combine that
with her new pilot, Oosting and she will attract a lot of attention. The disclaimer is …. she hasn’t raced in four weeks, something she
will have to overcome along with 10 post in this bulky field of 12. She will be
on most of my tickets.
11-
Bling If you like playing the drop in class angle,
this mare should be your price. The
other two droppers (3&10) will be two of the favorites. Bling returns to the level that she beat as
the public’s choice two starts ago. As
one of the two trailers in the race, she’ll need some luck. This could be her lucky night if this eleven
year old mare can fire from post eleven.
12-
Sister’s Keeper This gal’s last three starts have been at this
level, in two of which she finished second. I can’t leave her off my tickets. If she
somehow finds a trip from here she will be a factor at a big price.
Top Contenders:
3-7-10-11-4-5
Common Races:
July 8th Race 13 1-4-6-8
July 8th Race 12 2-5-7
July 8th Race 11 (2
levels higher) 3-11
July 1st Race 10 9-12
Best of luck to all as this is quite a race and an
opportunity to reward the bettor!
This is why
you should bet this race –
Very likely the payout will exceed the money wagered
More importantly, Hawthorne is a track that does not have
slot machine revenue. They charge a
reasonable amount for their signal, offers guaranteed pools and three 15%
wagers every racing night.
Hawthorneracecourse.com offers free live streaming of the
races.
United States Trotting Association - ustrotting.com offers
free program pages for all guaranteed pools.
Overcoming many obstacles, Hawthorne handled in excess of
$1,000,000 last Saturday and Sunday.
They now offer by far the largest guaranteed pool in the United States
this year.
This is a track worthy of your support.
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