To show our support for the across the board takeout reduction, we will be posting handicapper helpers, courtesy of Emily Gullikson and OptixEQ, for each card.
MONMOUTH at the
MEADOWLANDS 10-06-16
Relatively chalky results on the win end last night, but the
“vulnerable favorite” race came back with a very healthy straight trifecta. IAN
SMITH (race 5 #7), the horse in yesterday’s Handicapper Helper, was a play against based on a
“PREP?” scenario. The replay is worth a watch; the horse had legit trouble and
ran on very well through traffic late. It was a very useful prep, and he is a horse
to follow out of that race.
RACE 4 MAIDEN SPECIAL
WEIGHT 5F TURF
VULNERABLE FAVORITE? :
Race four tonight will have a very heavy favorite in the #1 FLY SWIFT (3-2). This is a tough
horse to make a vulnerable favorite because she has things going in her favor: speed figure-wise she is the fastest, she was facing much tougher company, and she
has run decently in both starts.
There are a couple things in her OptixNotes
from both starts that merit a pause, though. On debut, the note is PREP? STRETCH? - If
unfamiliar with keywords, she needed the start and will move forward with more
ground. She made her second start at Saratoga going 5.5f, did not stretch out
(made her a play against that day), and she did have a very rough trip. The
keywords were TROUBLE_START, TRAFFIC, TROUBLE, and SCARED. SCARED is a keyword
used for horses that are timid. Her extended comment reads, “had legit trouble,
steadied in the stretch, prior to that had the chance to split horses and did
not want to.” Using the OptixNotes and her rail draw, there is a potential she
could get intimidated again inside. As we have seen in sprint races this
meet, horses on the lead continue to dominate. She has yet to show that
dimension, and that's another reason that might make her vulnerable.
There are scenarios where Dylan Davis sends her from the
rail, she makes the lead, and the fastest horse wins the race. He could also
potentially work a trip, though. Watching him ride on the NYRA Circuit, he is not known for
his TACTICS+. Here are a couple other positive trip scenarios: there is a lot
of speed to her outside, the jock is able to get her outside and never risk
being intimidated, break well, sit patiently behind the duel and get first
run, or save ground and have the rail open on turn and get a clear inside run,
securing perfect trips.
She is a risk leaving off all tickets, but maybe a
horse that is not completely the “single” she looks on paper.
SELECTIONS:
R1: 7-6-4-3
R2: 7-9-1-4
R3: 6-7-(5-8-9)
R4: 7-10-5
R5: 4-6-9-1
R6: 9-8-(3-5-7)
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