To show our support for the across the board takeout reduction, we will be posting handicapper helpers, courtesy of Emily Gullikson and OptixEQ, for each card.
MONMOUTH at the
MEADOWLANDS 10-05-16
It’s good to be back at the Meadowlands after last week’s
cancellations. As alluded to close out the last racing week, OptixPlot was very
helpful, especially in route races signaling on horses that were positioned favorable
to that track profile. Sprint results played out similar to last year, favoring
horses on the lead. The track took some water and may play differently, of
course we won’t know until once the races have started.
VULNERABLE FAVORITE
RACE 5 #7 IAN SMITH (3-1) looks like a play against in this spot as the morning line
favorite. I do question whether or not he will be the post time favorite, but he still
should be an underlay in the multi-race sequences. There are a lot of factors
at play that scream “PREP?”. After
a failed attempt to start his 3-year-old year, he was laid up another eight
months - this is not something I find favorable and signal a horse that has
issues and is not completely reliable. During that time away he received a barn
change (same owner); this barn change is acceptable and would not consider a
downgrade, even moving away from Pletcher. The Abbott stable operates on a
smaller scale, the trainer is more personally hands-on, and does especially good
work on the turf.
Compared to the rest of the field, IAN SMITH only has one
career win, whereas the rest of the runners sport multiple wins. As for running
style, both of his starts in sprints were on the lead, which is favorable on
this course, but he will have to deal with the pressure of others in here that
are confirmed frontrunners and will be fit enough to fight the battle and win the
war.
Another question with him is whether or not he is a true turf sprinter.
After breaking his maiden, the former connections continued to stretch him out
around two turns. His posted speed figures are on the slower side but do
remember those are 2-year old numbers and reasonable age improvement puts him
on par for level. Again, this looks like a prep race, perhaps using this race
for conditioning for a future start or stretch out. He looks like a runner
worth taking a wait-and-see approach, especially at a short price.
SELECTIONS:
R1: 9-2-7-5
R2: 9-7-6-1
R3: 5-4-7-8
R4: 7-8-9
R5: 2-4-10-6
R6: 3-1-5-8-10
Twitter: @Mayhemily1 and @OptixEQ
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