The Horseplayer
Monthly from HANA also has tips, hard-to-find stats, and analysis for
the meet at Kentucky Downs. You can read that issue for free here.
KENTUCKY DOWNS 9-10-16
RACE 10
KD LADIES SPRINT 6.5
TURF
Studying the ResultsGRAF, and using the OptixPLOT Result tab
helped out dramatically in Thursday's results. One of the areas of improvement
was paying more attention to the way the track was playing and putting an extra
emphasis on pace handicapping. The card today looks a bit more “formful” in the
sense that I think the favorites are good or legit, not many races have a big
favorite that I am really excited to take on. I included a few in my selections
because they are worthy to include, and worth using underneath more decent
price horses in exotics.
VULNERABLE/SOFT
FAVORITE
Race 10 looks like a good spot to take on couple short
prices and play against for the top spot.
#3 MISSISSIPPI DELTA (5-2): Since this spring I’ve been
waiting for this filly to break through, and it just has yet to happen. Her last
race sold me on it. She was against the race flow and ran rather one-paced and
even. There is actually another horse in this race that also comes out of that
Woodbine Grade III that I am more interested in. In OptixGrades she’s a consistent B-
and typically a B grade is considered a winning race. She has not done enough
for me to get involved as a post time favorite.
#7 LATE SPRING (4-1) is a complete toss to me. Watching her
races, it is obvious to why connections have kept her at 5-5.5 furlong sprints.
She is very small and compact. I do not like her with this added distance.
#4 MISS DOUBLE D’ORO (3-1) has a better record since the cutback
to sprinting. Of the three, I prefer her the most, and she's the most likely to hit the board.
Her trip looks a bit suspect and wins have been with closing setups.
CONTENDERS
#2 RAPID RHYTHM (10-1) exits the same Grade III at Woodbine as
Mississippi Delta and preference is given to Rapid Rhythm out of that common race. She did not
get the best trip/ride and has more upside making her second start off the
layoff.
# 10 MY YEAR IS A DAY (8-1) looks best as a sprinter. Her
last effort is forgivable after setting a quick pace and wrapping up late. Trip
looks favorable.
#9 ANUSARA (15-1) raced back here early in her career, and I
went back and watched the race. It was not a bad effort, a decent third. There is
not much pace as far as “need the lead” types. It's possible she is controlling
speed or forwardly-placed to take advantage of a potential pace scenario.
#1 RUMBLE DOLL (6-1) had no chance in last two, wants
longer, and has progressed with each race. She will need an expert trip, which makes
her less than exciting at 6-1, but she's a contender nonetheless.
R1: 5-9-11-12
R2: 4-3-5
R3: 5-11-8-1 (no real strong order of preference)
1 – solid debut SLOG, CLOSEd X_FLOW
5- purely a prep, looks meant for this start PREP?, CLOSE,
X_BIAS, STRETCH?
8- similar work tab to another Cox debut this meet, ran a 64
Beyer, and similar debut matches with this field
11- visually impressive debut, lone “B” grade TRAFFIC, WIDE,
MOVE, X_FLOW
R4: #8 KNIGHTS KEY (8-1 best
bet) good prep in last, has TURF? keyword from debut
R5: 12-7-11-2
R6: 1-4; 7 (soft favorite, could get trip) and 9 (use
underneath)
R7: 6-3-1
R8: 1 (second best
bet) – 6 (class, may want longer?)– 5 (cross entered at DEL as 7-2ML fav)
*Play against #3 ANNULMENT (5-2)
R9: 3-7*-5 (7 DA BIG HOSS is legit, run style potentially
vulnerable on track, and if playing against use forwardly placed runner)More from OPTIXNOTES and OPTIXPLOT can be found at OptixEQ.com, and you can also check them out on Twitter @OptixEQ.
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