Saturday, September 10, 2016

OptixEQ Handicapper Helper for Kentucky Downs (September 10) - Pick 5 Carryover

OptixEQ's Emily Gullikson has been kind enough to provide one detailed race preview and picks for all of the other races for Thursday's card at Kentucky Downs, HANA's #1 rated track.  We will be posting these for each race date.  Today's card features four stakes races, including the Grade III Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup, and a $52,090 Pick 5 carryover, which begins in race six (approximate post 4:04 p.m. eastern).

The Horseplayer Monthly from HANA also has tips, hard-to-find stats, and analysis for the meet at Kentucky Downs.  You can read that issue for free here. 

Studying the ResultsGRAF, and using the OptixPLOT Result tab helped out dramatically in Thursday's results. One of the areas of improvement was paying more attention to the way the track was playing and putting an extra emphasis on pace handicapping. The card today looks a bit more “formful” in the sense that I think the favorites are good or legit, not many races have a big favorite that I am really excited to take on. I included a few in my selections because they are worthy to include, and worth using underneath more decent price horses in exotics.

Race 10 looks like a good spot to take on couple short prices and play against for the top spot. 

#3 MISSISSIPPI DELTA (5-2):  Since this spring I’ve been waiting for this filly to break through, and it just has yet to happen. Her last race sold me on it. She was against the race flow and ran rather one-paced and even. There is actually another horse in this race that also comes out of that Woodbine Grade III that I am more interested in. In OptixGrades she’s a consistent B- and typically a B grade is considered a winning race. She has not done enough for me to get involved as a post time favorite.

#7 LATE SPRING (4-1) is a complete toss to me. Watching her races, it is obvious to why connections have kept her at 5-5.5 furlong sprints. She is very small and compact. I do not like her with this added distance.

#4 MISS DOUBLE D’ORO (3-1) has a better record since the cutback to sprinting. Of the three, I prefer her the most, and she's the most likely to hit the board. Her trip looks a bit suspect and wins have been with closing setups.

#2 RAPID RHYTHM (10-1) exits the same Grade III at Woodbine as Mississippi Delta and preference is given to Rapid Rhythm out of that common race. She did not get the best trip/ride and has more upside making her second start off the layoff.

# 10 MY YEAR IS A DAY (8-1) looks best as a sprinter.  Her last effort is forgivable after setting a quick pace and wrapping up late. Trip looks favorable.

#9 ANUSARA (15-1) raced back here early in her career, and I went back and watched the race.  It was not a bad effort, a decent third. There is not much pace as far as “need the lead” types. It's possible she is controlling speed or forwardly-placed to take advantage of a potential pace scenario.

#1 RUMBLE DOLL (6-1) had no chance in last two, wants longer, and has progressed with each race. She will need an expert trip, which makes her less than exciting at 6-1, but she's a contender nonetheless. 

R1: 5-9-11-12
R2: 4-3-5
R3: 5-11-8-1 (no real strong order of preference)
1 – solid debut SLOG, CLOSEd X_FLOW
5- purely a prep, looks meant for this start PREP?, CLOSE, X_BIAS, STRETCH?
8- similar work tab to another Cox debut this meet, ran a 64 Beyer, and similar debut matches with this field
11- visually impressive debut, lone “B” grade TRAFFIC, WIDE, MOVE, X_FLOW
R4: #8 KNIGHTS KEY (8-1 best bet) good prep in last, has TURF? keyword from debut
R5: 12-7-11-2
R6: 1-4; 7 (soft favorite, could get trip) and 9 (use underneath)
R7: 6-3-1
R8: 1 (second best bet) – 6 (class, may want longer?)– 5 (cross entered at DEL as 7-2ML fav)
*Play against #3 ANNULMENT (5-2)
R9: 3-7*-5 (7 DA BIG HOSS is legit, run style potentially vulnerable on track, and if playing against use forwardly placed runner)

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