"In-Running" Betting Passed in New Jersey. Here's What That Is.

According to reports, New Jersey bettors will have the opportunity as early as this spring to bet "in-running" on horse racing (in-running has been currently passed for the Meadowlands, Monmouth has not been finalized.)

What exactly is that and how does it work? A Horseplayers Association board member penned an article last year on exactly that topic for Trot Magazine, a Canadian harness racing monthly. Here's that article, reprinted with permission. 

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Betting in running tool

 “Satisfied customers are not likely to increase your sales. Satisfied customers are not likely to push you and your colleagues to stay ahead of the competition. One day, in fact, the competition will pass you and the satisfied customers will quietly leave.

Your growth will come instead from the dissatisfied and unsatisfied. The dissatisfied know they want a solution, but are not happy with the solution they’ve got. The unsatisfied are the folks who do not even realize they have a problem that needs solving. That is why focus groups are often so useless. The people you really need to hear from are the great unwashed, the people who are not even looking at you. That is where you will find the customers you need when your current line becomes obsolete.”

- Seth Godin from Free Prize Inside, The Next Big Marketing Idea

I was getting ready to start my work day this winter when I got a message from a friend. 

It went something like, “1:54.81 will hold up here and you’re getting three to five. There’s no one left that was even close to that time the last time these girls raced on the Sochi track.”

My immediate response was “what is he talking about”, until I realized he was betting the women’s speed skating final at the Sochi Winter Olympics, while the event was going on. It’s called in-running betting, mostly made popular by British betting exchange betfair, but also utilized in Las Vegas and offshore books for sports like football.  It’s a new form of wagering, and it certainly – in this new connected world – here to stay.

In-running betting does not only happen with popular human sports, as women’s speed skating markets can surely attest, it’s also in use for Thoroughbred racing and has been for some time. Just last year the great Black Caviar raced a short five furlong affair in Australia and she, and she alone, had $40 million matched on her to win; most of it at about 12 cents on the dollar (in decimal odds this is 1.12. In North American racing odds it would be near 1-9). A fair portion of it was bet while the short 55 second race was being run. That’s where the action took hold.  

Black Caviar broke well but seemed to be not quite as keen as she usually is. This prompted bettors – on laptops and desktops at home, iPads or iPhones or Blackberry’s at the track – to start letting her price out a notch. Hundreds of thousands of dollars were passing through cyberspace and cell phone towers as she rose from 1.12 to 1.25 to 1.33 to 1.45. As she approached the wire, her lead diminishing in every foot of turf, her nostrils flaring with her equally game opponent bearing down on her, she rose to 1.90 as the wire finally came. She was beaten, or was she? Another several hundred thousand traded on her because no one was sure; it was a photo. Yes, megabucks were still humming, betting on a photo. The backers at 1.90 (almost even money) were rewarded, because the photo sign was removed and the strapping black racemare was still undefeated. 

This could not have happened even ten years ago; maybe even five. But it’s happening today. 

Josh Nelms, an Australian harness racing player believes that racing has everything going for it. 

Writing on his blog “In-Play Analysis of Australian Racing” he says,

“Harness racing is still the premium in-play product. Due to the fact it will take approximately 2 minutes to run a race there's so much time to get set or get off. I only wish it would increase its. It's a winner for everyone!  ”

Racing is made for this type of wagering. As Josh noted, the races take approximately two minutes – more if the sport embraces longer distance racing – and that allows for betting to take place with some flow. Harness racing is also blessed with tightly grouped fields, which result in close finishes, where just about every entry could take action while the race is going off. 

It seems to have a following. At harness tracks in Australia, in-play wagering makes up about one-quarter of the total handle that’s bet before the event. That’s significant. 

How would this model work here? Would it work? I think, if done correctly, it could. Let’s look at it through a crystal ball. 

The first race is the 2 mile trot, with 14 entrants. Instead of a win pool odds board, there is an exchange where buyers and sellers can choose the horses they like, or do not like. The market makers assure liquidity, and one would hope, partnerships and interest have aroused the betting customer enough to create the volume needed for the exchange to work. There are people still betting win tickets at the windows, but they can choose a market price (where they are filled immediately and get a ticket with a locked in price) or a limit order, by choosing their odds. 

When the race goes off, the market gets started. Randy Waples, on the pre-race favorite from the 9 post, gets shoved out four wide and settles in dead last. Phil Hudon on the four, the second choice, gets the lead easily. At home or at simulcast centres the feed shows the odds tick down on Phil to 8-5, while Randy’s horse rises to 12-1, as bettors make their bets. They’re not the only ones, though. Sylvain Filion on the six has second over cover, and several other horses are in contention. Those horses tick down a notch, too.

Past the mile and a half marker, Randy who has toiled in obscurity near the back of the bus suddenly makes a sweeping move. It seems the pace has taken its toll on the leaders and his charge is fresh as a daisy. His price plunges in an instant, as smartphones and computers send in their bets. In the middle of the Georgian homestretch, Randy is home. His price falls to 1.01. Race over. 

Is that an unlikely scenario? No. In fact, almost the exact thing happened in an Australian race with a horse named Splitzer last July. 

 

Splitzer, who was a short priced favorite before the race began, broke slow and settled last in the field of fourteen. After spiking to 12-1 with thousands of dollars traded, he circled the field and won the race. 

This is not fantasy. It’s very real. 

“The people you really need to hear from are the great unwashed, the people who are not even looking at you........”

This form of betting, if you speak to a traditionalist, might be met with a blank stare. Current bettors want to make their superfecta bet and cheer that home. They don’t mind what racing has been serving them. However, that’s not really relevant and it won’t affect them in anything but a positive way. For example, win betting could still be done in the system with an added bonus: A price is locked-in , so instead of watching their odds change after the bell - a long held complaint in small pool harness racing – they get what they pay for. 

The biggest boost though, is with the “people who are not even looking at you”. 

 

People often complain racing is too complex to learn. They have a point. What 25 year old wants to study a program with numbers they don’t understand, to bet horses he or she does not know by standing up at a wicket, and to likely lose money doing it. It’s like harness racing is selling root canals. 

I know nothing about NASCAR racing, but I was watching a race a couple of weeks ago and could see that the #4 car of Kevin Harvick was moving really well. While some of his opponents were plagued with a shaking chassis on the turns, his car was smooth as glass and he “looked live”. If I could’ve bet him in the race at that point I would’ve, even though I am a complete newbie NASCAR fan. 

It’s not hard to envision the same thing with in-running harness betting:

You don’t have to be Pittsburgh Phil to notice what horse is traveling well at the half mile pole. It’s not difficult to notice that the horse on the lead has a good chance to hold on if the pace is slow; or the horse sweeping three high with a fast half has a good chance. 

You don’t need form cycles, or trainer change notes, or statistics to play a race in-running. For people who are intimidated by racing, this might be a perfect tonic. 

The market expands further, when we include the statistics guys and computer modelers. Those betting characters love numbers, and the thrill of figuring out the win percentages and related betting returns at each points in the mile is something they crave. 

“One day, in fact, the competition will pass you and the satisfied customers will quietly leave..... “

If I told you that in a few years hence harness racing could deliver a system that gives added excitement with bells and whistles like a slot machine, reduces down time between races, makes each race a unique betting event, could attract a technologically savvy younger audience by allowing them to use their smartphones and tablets to bet, that would make headlines around North American racing that scream “hey, look what they’re doing in harness racing in little track in Ontario, it looks like a blast!”, and that attacks the scourge of small pools and odds that change after the bell, you’d think we were looking at a game changer. 

I’d have to agree with you, In-running betting, done right, can be exactly that. 

Charlie Davis's Reflections on NHC17

Horseplayers Association of North America board member Charlie Davis finished third in last week's National Handicapping Championship (NHC) and penned the following column about his experience and answered some questions about his preparation, handicapping and strategy that he has received since the event ended. 

This past weekend I came in third in the 17^th NHC tournament. I had a blast, made some new friends, saw a bunch of old friends, and even made some money. Huge congratulations to Paul Matties, the champion, who is an incredible handicapper and contest player.

I want to mention the handicapping programs I use as they’re all invaluable. I use JCapper (a database program which helps me to automate my opinions and quickly look at a race), TimeformUS PP’s (which are by far my favorite PP’s that I’ve ever worked with), and OptixEQ (trip notes and other tools).  One of my strengths is that I know, and acknowledge, my weaknesses. I know I’m not great at trip notes, and don’t have the time to go through and make my own trip notes, so I’m pleased to work with the great team at OptixEQ who make standardized trip notes across the major circuits.

I also want to thank my family for putting up with the long hours and the travel involved in horse racing, and finally John Doyle who’s been a great friend and mentor.

I’ve had a lot of questions about why I picked certain horses, what my thought process was, how I prepare, etc. I figured I’d knock them all out here in one fell swoop. 

Preparation:

I know many people who prep for big tournaments different than they do on a normal day. That doesn’t work for me as I try to stick as close to a normal weekend as possible.  The night before I run through the cards, identify weak favorites, note races with big fields, and exclude races with short fields, dominant favorites, etc. I make sure to get a good rest, I don’t have more than a couple of drinks, and I eat well.

The real work starts in the morning where before scratches I take a look at weather and further refine the races I’m interested in. Then, once scratches come out, I start choosing my races and horses to play.  At this point I take a final look at the OptixEQ trip notes, take another look at the pace to make sure I’m confident in it, and then write down the horse(s) I’m interested in each race.

Before I go down to the contest room, I already have a list of the races I’m likely to play, spreadsheets built so that I know how many races are available, and it’s down to watching the odds and some final decision making in the 10-15 prior to each race. 

Goals/Confidence:

I start by having a goal, and understanding my strengths and weaknesses.  I have daily and overall goals and they allow me to set targets.  My daily goal was at least $100 a day, with $150 being my stretch target, and I wanted to be in first going into the final day. My overall goal was to be in first prior to the final table, and be first prior to the Santa Anita races at the final table.  I know I’m not very good at Santa Anita, and knowing that, I knew I needed to be in front going into those races.

I also am a big believer in the power of positive thinking.  The title of the document where I kept my notes for the weekend is “NHC Champion Interview Notes.”  I’ve seen many good horseplayers lose due to negativity and a lack of belief. Everyone I corresponded with prior to the tournament knows that I said I was going to win. I didn’t, but it helped keep me confident.  It’s not arrogance or a lack of respect for the other players.  Hell, I know a lot of those guys are better handicappers than I am. I had dinner with a good friend (and respected handicapper, who bet on Paul by the way) on Wednesday who said that Paul is the best handicapper he knows.  It’s simply that fact that if you don’t believe in yourself then your chances are slim.

A lot of people think these contests are just about handicapping. They’re not. You have to be able to handicap of course, but you also have to understand value, and not be afraid to have a poor score if the percentages don’t work in your favor.  Many of the best contest players out there either win or end up with really low scores.  Many big names didn’t make the top 10% this weekend and that doesn’t mean they aren’t any good. This is a game of percentages and you have to pick horses that offer value, have confidence in that pick, hope the percentages work out in your favor, and don’t second-guess when they do.

Dealing with Adversity:

I had two things that happened that could’ve put me on tilt.  On tilt in horse racing is different than in poker, but it basically results in a lack of confidence. Lack of confidence means you’re questioning your picks, changing things, etc.

On day 1, in the last race at Aqueduct there was a cap horse that I liked quite a bit. Thunderbumms was the name, and the horse had a bit of an excuse in his last, plus the price was great. I played him on my backup ticket, but not on my primary since there were a few others I liked better later in the day.  I still had four or five optional plays to make, as well as at least four mandatory plays to make at this point. I could’ve been upset and looked at what my score could’ve been, but that’s a great way to lose your confidence. I doubt anyone even knows that I had that horse since I didn’t mention it. As soon as you start talking about what-ifs, it’s impossible to recover.

The second item was a bit harder to recover from. I had a horse that I was waiting for all day. It was Two Ten in the finale at Santa Anita. John Doyle brought this horse up to me first thing in the morning, and the OptixEQ Trip Notes for it were great. I knew all day long that this was going to be my final optional play as long as my position allowed it.   Well, coming into the final race I was behind first by around $4. The horse finished second (unfortunate at the time), but the $5.80 place price was enough to put me in first. Goal accomplished, I was in first going into the final day. Then I saw the scores and heard that I’m not in first, and I realize I never entered the play. I had it in my spreadsheet but never entered it into the contest.   $5.80 might not sound like a lot, but it matters, trust me. You’ll see how much it matters in the next section.

This one wasn’t as easy to brush off because it was a really stupid mistake. It could have been a very costly, stupid mistake.  Once I found out I wasn’t disqualified, I went and had a big glass of scotch, removed the $5.80 from my spreadsheet, and after about an hour, didn’t mention it again.  Thanks to Eric Wing for helping me keep positive.  

I’ve seen so many players lose the plot once they make a mistake or switch horses or anything like that and it’s important to me to keep that negativity out and stay positive.  When it’s a big one, scotch always helps! 

Final Table:

I started out with $10.40 to place on my first race, and then went blanks on the next four races. I was going for the win and was playing horses with a lower probability of winning, but I was passed by two other players during those races.  I was now left with the eighth and ninth at Santa Anita, a track I’m admittedly weak at.  

In the eighth, I was between two horses, the #8 and the #1.  I didn’t like any cap horses and only liked those two horses.  Both horses had OptixEQ trip notes which led me to believe they’d improve. The #8 was 9-1 and the #1 was 3-1.  I absolutely loved the #1 but was leaning towards the #8 due to the price.  This is where strategy comes in. I figured others would be playing the #8 and other price horses to move up on Paul. I knew that I couldn’t make up ground playing the same horses, and there wasn’t a whole lot of downside if I did drop another few spots.  The difference between fifth (where I was), and third was $50K.  The difference between fifth and seventh was $16K.  I played the #1, who narrowly won the race over the #8, and those $13 put me not only in third, but within a $64 cap horse of the leader.  Not a huge score, but it made it so that the $5.80 from the night before didn’t hurt me!

In the ninth I loved the #7, but the odds wouldn’t help me move up. The choice was between protecting with that #7 horse so that the folks behind me couldn’t catch me, or playing a big price in hopes of catching Paul. 

I know Dave Gutfreund well and know that he’s extremely cognizant of value. I also know that the amount of money at stake probably (hopefully) wasn’t enough for him to play for position.  I assumed he would be going for a price, but as soon as the gates opened I asked right away! I was most concerned about him.

I’ve met Duke Matties several times and sat with him at a tournament, but I don’t know him as well. I do know that he’s aggressive in contests. I again assumed he’d go for the win, especially since I assumed his brother would be playing pretty chalky.

The way I handicapped the players in the last race was as follows:

Paul Matties: Horse he thinks is most likely to win.

Roger Cettina: Probably a mid-price horse of which there were many.

Duke Matties: Price horse.

Dave Gutfreund: Price horse.

Because of this, I went with my second favorite price horse, Soi Phet.  I thought others might go with Image of Joplin in hopes of lone speed, so went with the one I thought would be least used.  All of that was for nothing when Soi Phet didn’t figure in the slightest, and Roger in second used him as well, but I accurately handicapped those in fourth and fifth, so was able to retain third. 

Conclusion:

I made $50K on a 3-1 shot, had a great time, and learned a lot about myself in the process.  It was a great tournament, and I have no regrets about any horse I played the entire tournament.  I’m honored to have been at the final table with such a great group of handicappers, and feel no shame in losing to Paul.  I guess my only regret is that my backers in the futures bet lost their money!