Woodbine Pick 5 Analysis: Do Takeout Rates Make a Difference?

After reading Jeff's post about the different sized exacta pools at Del Mar and Saratoga, we at HANA HQ got to thinking -- What about the Woodbine Pick 5?

The Woodbine Pick 5 was created in 2015 for Thoroughbred racing and the following year, was created for the standardbreds. While Woodbine charges the high 25% takeout rate for the Thoroughbred Pick 5, the standardbred Pick 5 is taxed at an industry normal 15%.

What's been happening? The chart below illustrates some random days, with a ratio of pick 5 to the 25% takeout pick 4's.

Since September of 2015 until this month, the Woodbine pick 5 for Thoroughbreds at 25% takeout attracts approximately 40-45% the money the pick 4 at 25% takeout does.

In January of 2016, the standardbred pick 5 at 15% takeout started slow, with near the same pick 5 to pick 4 money ratio as the Thoroughbreds.

Since that time, however, it has grown rapidly. This month it's over 75%, and on certain Monday's, where the standardbreds are really the only major product to bet, the pick 5 is attracting almost as much as the pick 4 is. In fact, some days the pick 5 for harness racing attracts more money than it does for the Thoroughbreds, who are, of course, a much higher handled signal.

It is interesting that it took some time for the pick 5 to challenge the pick 4's with the standardbreds. It is often said value takes time to show itself, but sooner or later it does.

Does takeout - i.e. size of payoffs - play a part in the above statistics? It probably does.

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for August 25 - Pick 5 Carryover

Eight races are on the docket tonight at Canterbury Park, and for the first Thursday this meet, all of them are Thoroughbred races.  Conditions this morning were listed as fast and good, so there's finally been a break with the weather as well.  The featured wager on tonight's program is the pick 5, which begins in race four with a $2,227 carryover.  There are also two pick 4s, one commencing in the opener and another one starting in race five.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Craig Milkowski (Chief Figure Maker for TimeformUS)

Race 6:

Unstoppable Colby (#6)

-TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a pace scenario favoring horses on or near the front; projected second early on turn back from mile race
-106 Speed Figure in last race is 11 points higher than any other horse in the field
-Earned that figure while battling for the early lead on a track that was favoring off the pace types

3-1 on ML

 

Brian Kohn (Canterbury Park Racing Operations Coordinator)

Race 1 Selections:  10/6/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta ($4 total) 10/1, 6; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 10/1, 2, 6/1, 2, 6

Race 2 Selections:4/7/2
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 4; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 2, 4, 7

Race 3 Selections:  8/3/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 8; $1 Double ($6 total) 1, 3, 8/4, 6

Race 4 Selections:  6/4/3
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 6; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 3, 4, 6

Race 5 Selections:  4/6/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 4; $1 Exacta ($4 total) 4/1, 2, 6, 8

Race 6 Selections:  5/7/6
Suggested Wagers:  $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 5, 6, 7; 50-cent pick 3 ($3 total) 5, 6, 7/5, 8/7

Race 7 Selections:  8/5/9
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 5, 8; $1 Double ($4 total) 5, 8/4, 7

Race 8 Selections:  7/4/3
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 7; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 4, 7/4, 7/1, 3, 5

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 7/2/6
2: 1/2/4
3: 3/12/4
4: 6/3/4
5: 8/1/4
6: 1/5/3
7: 8/1/9
8: 6/3/7

Pick 5
4: 3456
5: 8
6: 1356
7: 8
8: 34567

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Mid-Summer 2016 Handle Update Del Mar vs. Saratoga

In October 2014 I attended a CHRB Parimutuel and ADW Committee Meeting at Los Al and presented a spreadsheet that indicated an alarming trend:

In Win-Place-Show pools where both tracks have approximate level takeout rates:

During the summer of 2014 Del Mar handled 82.76 percent as much as Saratoga did.

But in the Exacta pool where Del Mar has a significantly higher takeout rate than Saratoga does:

Del Mar handled just 54.79 percent as much as Saratoga did.

I also presented the argument that if Del Mar's Exacta's takeout rate had been in line with New York's Exacta takeout rate: They likely would have handled about 82.76 percent as much as Saratoga in their Exacta pools like they did in Win-Place-Show pools.

I also presented a lost revenue calculation suggesting Del Mar was suffering an opportunity cost of approximately $10k per exacta pool because their exacta takeout at 22.68 percent was and still is out of line with New York's exacta takeout rate of $18.50 percent.

After I presented my findings, a number of speakers representing track management and the TOC took the podium and told the Commissioners of the CHRB that although my numbers might appear alarming they weren't too concerned - but that they would monitor this trend going forward.

I posted about this on Paceadvantage. Anyone interested in the numbers or more detail can read about this at the following link:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1849170&postcount=10


Fast forward two years to summer 2016.

Right now as I type this the premier race meets for both Del Mar and Saratoga are currently underway.

This morning I ran a similar Del Mar vs. Saratoga handle and revenue comparison.

I've begun compiling a spreadsheet that I plan on presenting to the CHRB after the summer 2016 meets for both Del Mar and Saratoga have concluded.

For those of you who might be curious about the 2016 numbers - here's how they shake out so far:

First, all numbers presented below are on an average per race basis and reflect races run from opening day at both meets through Monday August 22, 2016.

From a total revenue standpoint, the trend that I pointed out to the CHRB, TOC, and Track Management back in October of 2014 appears to have worsened.

Two years ago in 2014:

In Win-Place-Show pools where both tracks have approximate level takeout rates:

Del Mar handled 82.76 percent as much as Saratoga did.

In the Exacta pool where Del Mar has a significantly higher takeout rate:

Del Mar handled just 54.79 percent as much as Saratoga did.

The opportunity cost or lost revenue number was about $10,090.00 per exacta pool.

So far this summer in 2016:

In Win-Place-Show pools where both tracks have approximate level takeout rates:

Del Mar is now handling 75.82 percent as much as Saratoga.

In the Exacta pool where Del Mar has a significantly higher takeout rate:

Del Mar is now handling just 47.41 percent as much as Saratoga!

The opportunity cost or lost revenue number is now running about $12,400.00 per exacta pool.

Earth to CHRB...

On second thought, never mind.

Under-performing exacta pools and millions in lost purse money are nothing to be concerned about.

Jeff Platt
President, HANA

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for August 18th

Nine races are on the card tonight at Canterbury, with only the first race being for Quarter Horses.  There is some rain in the area, so if you're playing, you'll want check track conditions and to see if they are staying on the turf.  Pick 4s are available starting in races two and six, and the pick 5 also begins in race six.  The first four races will be covered by TVG2, with the rest of the card then switching over to TVG.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Brian Kohn (Canterbury Park Racing Operations Coordinator)

Race 1 Selections: 8/4/6
Suggested Wagers:$2 Win, Place ($4 total) 8; $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 8

Race 2 Selections: 1/2/4
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 1; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 1, 2, 4

Race 3 Selections: 5/4/3
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 5; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 4, 5/4, 5/3, 6, 8

Race 4 Selections: 5/6/4
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 4, 5, 6; $1 Trifecta Box ($6 total) 4, 5, 6

Race 5 Selections:  1/5/8
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 1; $2 Exacta ($4 total) 1/5, 8

Race 6 Selections:  2/4/7
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta ($4 total) 2/4, 7; 50-cent pick 3 ($4.50 total) 2/3, 6, 7/5, 6, 7

Race 7 Selections:  7/6/3
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 7; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 3, 6, 7

Race 8 Selections: 5/6/7
Suggested Wagers: $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 5; $2 Double ($6 total) 5, 6, 7/4

Race 9 Selections:  4/5/6
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta ($4 total) 4/5, 6; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 4/5, 6, 8/5, 6, 8

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 8/6/4
2: 2/3/5
3: 5/4/7
4: 1/5/6
5: 5/1/8
6: 1/2/7
7: 3/5/7
8: 6/1/8
9: 6/7/1

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for August 11

Unfortunately the Twin Cities area was soaked by heavy rain last night, meaning Canterbury Park is off the turf tonight. Ten races are on the card tonight, with the first two being Quarter Horse races.  Pick 4s are available starting in races three and seven, and the pick 5 beginning in race six.  We are happy to welcome aboard Canterbury's Racing Operations Coordinator Brian Kohn, who will providing selections for the rest of the meet, starting tonight.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Brian Kohn (Canterbury Park Racing Operations Coordinator)

Race 1 Selections: 8/4/2
Suggested Wagers: $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 4, 8; $1 Double ($6 total) 4, 8/4, 5, 6

Race 2 Selections: 5/4/6
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 5; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 4, 5, 6

Race 3 Selections: 7/5/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta ($4 total) 7/1, 5; $2 Double ($6 total) 7/3, 4, 10

Race 4 Selections: 3/10/4
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 3; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 3, 4, 10

Race 5 Selections:  2/6/4
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta Box ($4 total) 2, 6; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 2, 6/2, 6/1, 4, 8

Race 6 Selections:  5/4/2
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta ($4 total) 5/2, 4; $2 Double ($6 total) 5/1, 3, 8

Race 7 Selections:  3/8/1
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 3; $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 1, 3, 8

Race 8 Selections:  2/6/5
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Win, Place ($4 total) 2; 50-cent Pick 3 ($4.50 total) 2, 5, 6/4, 5, 6/6

Race 9 Selections:  4/5/6
Suggested Wagers:  $1 Exacta Box ($6 total) 4, 5, 6; $2 Double ($6 total) 4, 5, 6/6

Race 10 Selections:  6/5/2
Suggested Wagers:  $2 Exacta ($4 total) 6/2, 5; $1 Trifecta ($6 total) 6/2, 3, 5/2, 3, 5

Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 4/7/8
2: 10/4/6
3: 7/4/1
4: 7/6/9
5: 3/6/4
6: 4/1/6
7: 3/8/2
8: 2/6/8
9: 4/1/5
10: 5/6/1

Early pick 4
3: 7
4: 679
5: 1346
6: 12456

Pick 5
6: 14
7: 138
8: 2
9: 12456
10: 156

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Jeff Platt of Jcapper software also has agreed to post his core selections, directly from the software.

Here are his power ratings (as noted earlier, the first two races are Quarter Horse races, so it starts in race three)

3-7,3,1
4-7,6,9
5-3,1,6
6-5,4,3
7-8,1,6
8-3,4,5
9-4,3,5
10-6,3,5

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach

Canterbury Park Handicapping Helper for August 4

Tonight's handicapping primer for Canterbury Park is now available.  Ten races are coming up tonight at Canterbury, with the first two being Quarter Horse races.  All of the Thoroughbred races are on TVG, and the two Quarter Horse races are on TVG2, with pick 4s available starting in races three and seven, and the pick 5, beginning in race six.

Don't forget, we also have a free guide to Canterbury, courtesy of Equinometry, with historical stats, racing styles, and other thoughts that should help you if you don't have experience playing there.  We'd like to thank Lenny Moon for putting the guide together.

Craig Milkowski (Chief Figure Maker for TimeformUS)

Race 5:

Sammy's Mineshaft (#6)
-Double advantage horse---last two TimeformUS Speed Figures better than other horses have run in last two by at least five points, albeit on dirt
-Proven on turf; won on Remington Park lawn and runs similar speed figures on both surfaces when in form
-Figures to make a clear early lead and has proven able to rate up front and win on both turf and dirt
9/2 on ML

 Brian Arrigoni (Paddock analyst for Canterbury Park)

1: 3/2/6
2: 3/2/4
3: 2/4/8
4: 8/1/6
5: 4/8/5
6: 3/4/7
7: 6/8/2
8: 3/6/7
9: 5/1/2
10: 1/2/6

Early pick 4:
3: 2
4: 14568
5: 4589
6: 4

Pick 5
6: 347
7: 123568
8: 367
9: 125
10: 1

Dave - The Track Phantom - cut his teeth as a handicapper at Canterbury and has been having an excellent meet thus far. Dave has agreed to provide this Thursday's sheet for free!

You can see it right here!

Thanks Dave. Please visit his site for more information, and to look at his other tracks.

Johnny Love's thoughts on the card from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune are available here.

Other Twitter handles to follow for Canterbury:

Press Box
Bruce Meyer
Doug McPherson
Wes Reynolds
Andrew Malecha
Zach