Monday, May 9, 2016

Churchill's Change to Pick 6 Rules Symptomatic of a Sport Which Has Lost Its Way

Back in March, Churchill Downs petitioned the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission for a change to the carryover rules for the Derby Day pick 6.

As Steve Crist wrote in the DRF at the time:
Sick 6 at Churchill - Speaking of carryovers, here’s hoping someone hits the pick six on the Kentucky Derby card at Churchill Downs on May 7. Otherwise, a game of parimutuel three-card monte will kick in under a scheme unfortunately approved this week by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.
To see how it works, let’s suppose that the Derby pick six pool, where the minimum bet is $2, is exactly $1 million. After the usual 22 percent takeout, that leaves $780,000 that’s supposed to be paid out – $190,000 in Derby Day consolations and $570,000 that normally would be up for grabs in a carryover pool when racing at Churchill resumes on Thursday, May 12.
Instead, Churchill will add only half of that $570,000 to the May 12 pool, which will be conducted with a 20-cent minimum and with a mandatory payout. The other half of the pool will be carried over to Friday, May 13, to seed a new Rainbow-style “Single 6” pool that Churchill is beginning that day. That pool is paid out only when there is a lone winner, so it’s entirely possible that the Derby Day carryover money won’t be paid out until June.
This is dangerous policy that disrespects the integrity of the wagering pools. It makes the effective pick six takeout on Derby Day a whopping 49 percent
This ended up happening. As Marty McGee pointed out today:

"Here's what's happening with the $686,309 pick-6 carryover from Kentucky Derby Day:
Half of it ($343,154) is being used in a MANDATORY-PAYOUT pick-6 (now called the "Single Six") when racing resumes Thursday with an 8-race card (races 3-8). First post is 5 ET (Twilight Thursdays the rest of the meet.) The other half ($343,154) is being used to "seed" a new single-6 wager on Friday after the bet is dispersed Thursday."

Seeding jackpot bets with another pools money, and "three card monte" - as Steve Crist puts it - we feel are emblematic of a sport who has forgot someone very important: The Betting Customer.
The "#Sick6" is something that's being used to cure a bottom line, while in our opinion, it should be looking out for an entire industry.

Some (not all, see Keeneland and Kentucky Downs and Canterbury to name a few) in the sport all too often feel it has to resort to such prestidigitation, because "no one is betting horse racing." Well, for that, they do have a point:

We ask, what came first, the chicken or the egg?

Although some would like you to believe this drop has been inevitable, we see evidence that the argument is faulty.

In 2006, Nevada sports betting was bringing in $2.4 billion. This year - 2016 - it's slated to do $5 billion.That's over a double.

During this time Nevada sports wagering has taken 5.5% off a bet, expanded reach, and treated customers fairly well - so well, they want to bet more and more money on sports. No funny parlay's, no sick 6, no takeout hikes. Just betting and customer service.

Unlike horse racing, Nevada sports betting has not had a monopoly on internet wagering like racing has. It doesn't have legal status in 43 states. It does not have hundreds of tracks and OTB's as distribution points. It does not have dozens of ADW's. It's being done in one city, miles and miles away from the rest of the country's bettors at a tremendous disadvantage.

The gambling business is big and growing. For horse racing it has not grown for many years. With policies like the "sick 6", which add to takeout, and anger and madden customers, we can fully understand why.


Kevin and Xiaochun said...

Anyone betting a Churchill Downs race should be seeing a psychiatrist. I won't bet a CD track. I'm just going to ignore them and hope they eventually go away.

TNHorsePlayer said...

Why? Because they took the single worst bet in handicapping and made it marginally worse? Who cares.

James Green said...

I used to love Churchill, it was the best place in the state. But CDI dont care about the everyday bettors anymore. Family Fun Day used to be free with admission , now it's $10-$15 which is crazy. Why should I have 2 pay 4 my kids 2 get in anyday if they can't bet. Soon Churchill will only be open 3 days a week and it's because they have lost touch with the Community around them. We are the one's who use to go 5 days a week. Now they are lucky if we go 5 days in an entire meet. They only care about the rich no the everyday people that made Churchill what they use to be. The Southend has lost touch with Churchill or should I say Churchill abandoned and quit caring about us

Anonymous said...

Agree completely. I will stay away from Churchill. But your graph of the pari-mutuel handle is very misleading..start it at 0!

Sal Carcia said...

I missed controversy because I don't bet Churchill. I was forced to bet a few early races because Belmont had inclement weather the night before. I love Steve Crist and I assume he is right about this incident. And I am sure that much of the stagnation of horseracing handle can be attributed to not understanding the bettors.

But, I get suspicious when the King of the $2 pick 6 knocks the $.20 pick 6. I have seen Andy Beyer do takeout calculations for this bet that seem convoluted to me. If the same principle was used for the $2 pick 6 the takeout is quite high too.

The issue is whether or not the $.20 pick 6 is what the bettors want. I think they do because it is affordable. If you are playing you just want some coverage for your money. You want a chance to be a winner based on ability rather than being shut out because of cost. My argument has fallacies because some of that is true for the $.20 play as well. But al least, you get a chance to pay.

Kevin and Xiaochun said...

Sal, you are right. I know the $.20 bets make or more of us at the trough, but maybe that isn't a bad thing. Knowing that I am essentially shut out of the $2 P6 by syndicates spending 5 figures to take down the whole pot turns me to P3s, 4s and 5s, but those P6 carryovers would be nice to be able to attack like the whales do.

Example: I have a modest ticket in on the Golden Gate p6, a $.20 jackpot affair with 7 races of absolutely shitty horses. I use software to validate my own handicapping, which is comprehensive, and I have been doing it a while.

I also love Woodbine's approach with almost everything being $.20, but their vigorish is just awful, despite being EXTREMELY bettor-friendly in all other respects.

I think in the end this will end badly, because we as a group are impossible to unify, and therefore can bring only a little pressure to bear on the absolute meatheads who run american tracks. I stop betting when the vig hits >20%, and I only bet a 20% opportunity if there is a big pot and reasonable value potential, but I eschew larceny out of principal.