Thursday, October 30, 2014

Breeders' Cup Q & A

This Q & A segment with Mike Adams (@GateToWire) is one of several with some sharp handicappers in the Breeders' Cup edition of Horseplayer Monthly.  To read the rest of the issue, FOR FREE, please click here. 

1.  What horse are you most excited to bet in the Breeders' Cup & why? Telescope – Turf – His best efforts have come at a mile and a half. He has been off since the end of August with this race as the main goal. He has been just a step behind the best in Europe this year (Australia, The Grey Gatsby, Taghrooda, etc.) and having the best jockey in the world, Ryan Moore won’t hurt either. 

2.  What horse are you most excited to bet against in the Breeders' Cup & why?  Hootenanny in the Juvenile Turf.  I am not sure Hootenanny will be the favorite at post time but if he is feel free to bet against him. This will be his first effort past six furlongs and I have serious questions if he can compete with these at a mile. His breeding (Quality Road out of a Hennessy mare) is typically maxed out at a mile. His sister Love This Kitty (trained by Michael Matz) has one win in seven starts and has never even raced past six furlongs. Hootenanny’s dam, More Hennessy only raced once and all of her siblings (seven of them) were all sprinters with next to zero success past six furlongs. 

3.  Are you concerned about track bias again this year or do you think they learned their lesson from 2013? I am always concerned about track bias on big days because it keeps happening at track after track.  Hopefully the complaints from Friday last year will ensure a fair track. 

4.  My favorite go-to bet for Breeders’ Cup day(s) is: I’m a grinder so I feel that the BC value is in the Exacta pool. Full fields will give you value across the board making the exactas the right mix of value and ease to hit. I will dip into the pick three and pick four pools on BC day but sometimes stringing together three-four winners can be difficult. 

5.  What bet would you advise a newbie to focus on for the Breeders’ Cup? Win and Exacta. Pick out a horse you like. Make a nice win bet and then play that same horse first and second in exacta wheels with four or five other contenders. Low cost, fun and a chance to win some nice money. 

6.  The Euros have been dominant this year on North American grass. Will this continue on the Santa Anita green? Yes, I think the Euros will take all of the grass races except the Turf Sprint. The two-year-olds look good and the older horses should eat up the top US grass horses. 

7.  Who is your favorite longshot? Cigar Street in the Classic and Silentio in the Turf Sprint.

8.  Will big public money on Shared Belief and California Chrome make them unbettable in the win pools? Yes, I think both Shared Belief and California Chrome figure to be big underlays. This should make Cigar Street and Tonalist both nice overlays who have big shots to win.

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