Cary Fotias - State of the Game Address

Cary, who recently passed away, penned a state of the game address some time ago now. We reprint it here. Has much changed?

State of the Game Address

                       
                       By Cary Fotias

This Saturday, over 100,000 racing fans will gather at majestic Belmont Park as I’ll Have Another seeks to become the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years. 

I have seen every Belmont Stakes since I moved to New York in 1986 - from Woody’s fifth straight with Danzig Connection through Ruler on Ice.  In that span, nine horses have taken aim at the Triple Crown, only to come up short.  Believe me when I tell you, there is no sound in all the world of sports like the “New York roar” that builds to a climax as a potential Triple Crown winner enters the final furlongs.

Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones – some really good horses have failed the Test of the Champion.  Will I’ll Have Another become our twelfth Triple Crown winner?  I guess we’ll have to see what Dullahan, Union Rags, Paynter and Street Life have to say about that. So, get out to Big Sandy on Saturday and see some history.

With all the excitement over the Triple Crown grabbing the headlines, some ominous signs for thoroughbred racing continue to lurk “below the fold”. 

Item:  In 2004, I was part of the NTRA Players Panel at the Handicapping Expo in Las Vegas that made over 60 recommendations (one of which was implemented) to the industry to improve the game.  Number one on MY list was to lower the takeout dramatically.  Unfortunately, this has not happened.  The only meaningful takeout reductions have been in Pick-3, Pick-4 and Pick-5 pools.  Reducing the takeout in these pools does little to increase “churn” as the usually large payoffs are shared by only a few bettors who are unlikely to quickly plow back their profits.

It would be much better to lower the take on WPS.  Almost everyone would benefit from this, including the tracks.  Churn would increase significantly and casual players would get more “value” for their entertainment dollar.  It’s so simple an economic concept that it probably has no chance of happening considering the panjandrums that control the game. 

Item:  In the last few years, total handle on thoroughbred racing in the US has dwindled to $10.6 million from $15 million.  That’s a 30% decline in just a few years.  As the powers that be continue to fight for a bigger piece of a shrinking pie, they should be looking to get a smaller piece of a much, much bigger pie.  The industry has taken the greatest gambling game ever invented and trashed it.  It is a testament to “what the outside of a horse does to the inside of a man” that the game has survived the egregious and almost unconscionable decisions of its management.

Item: The aforementioned decline in handle has led to a severe liquidity crisis in the wagering pools.  With money spread across so many exotic pools in addition to WPS, the effects of the overall decline are exacerbated.  To wit, in Saturday’s first race at Monmouth Park (supposedly a top-shelf track), My Place Anytime was 3/5 entering the gate.  He won and paid $2.60.  In the second race at Monmouth on Sunday, Quiet Tiara was 8/5 entering the gate and paid $3.40. 

There’s nothing fishy going on here.  It’s just that a few big bettors (or one really big one) can cause these dramatic changes due to the paucity of money in the win pools.

Again, the solution is simple.  LESS IS MORE.  We need a lot less racing (and maybe less betting options on every race) so that pools can attract large bettors with differing opinions.  If we ran half the dates we do now, I guarantee you overall handle would improve.  Why? Because people will bet more than twice as much on big, competitive fields than they will on a steady diet of five and six horse affairs you always see in Northern California, and recently in Southern California and Churchill Downs (without slot money) as well.

Item:  Preposterous is the word that comes to mind when describing Churchill Downs handling of the “late odds drop” phenomenon.  Although the industry promised years ago that odds cycling would be reduced to 15 seconds, it has not happened.  So, the bozos at Churchill decided that rather invest money to keep their promise, they will just “blank out the odds” until they are final.  That way, no one can complain about odds drops during the race.  So when you watch Arlington, Calder and Churchill, you won’t see odds until mid-race. 

I have recommended for years that all final WPS pools and exacta payoff grids should be posted on the tracks’ onsite monitors and websites BEFORE the race goes off.  Now, THAT would insure the integrity of the pools.  After awhile, players would adjust to the earlier cutoff times and consider it more than a fair tradeoff.

Item:  After all the shenanigans at NYRA, the new board will consist of appointments from Gov Cuomo and NYRA along with non-voting members for owners and breeders.  Hello!  Has anyone ever heard of HORSEPLAYERS?  It disgusts me that the most vital constituency in the game is consistently given such short shrift.

Item:  The NYSRWB (New York State Racing and Wagering Board)  seems to just make up the rules as it chooses.  I wouldn’t have a problem with the detention barn for the Belmont Stakes horses if it was also used for $20,000 maiden claimers.  I want to be betting on a “fair” game ALL THE TIME.  The money is just as green in the first race on Wednesday as it is for the Belmont.

And, if you can change the rules on a whim, why not allow I’ll Have Another to race with the nasal strip that is permitted in every other US racing jurisdiction.  Lasix is OK, but not a nasal strip?  Get real, already.

Item:  Dateline - North Randall, Ohio –

Check out this beauty below.  Talk about manipulating the pools. I guess the perpetrators inflated the price of the favorite so they could collect more from bookmakers than they invested to drive up the price at the track.

The intentions of the bettor or bettors who targeted Monday's (May 21) fifth race on Thistledown in Cleveland for $90,000 in late win bets remained unknown on Wednesday, according to officials who are familiar with the investigation into the wagers.

Investigators have failed to determine how the bettor or bettors figured they would profit from the $15,000 win bets, which were placed on every other horse in the seven-horse maiden race but the 1-5 favorite within 90 seconds of the race going off. The bets drove the odds on the favorite up to 14-1 before a robotic wagering program targeted the favorite with an $8,359 win bet placed just before the race went off.

The horse who had been the favorite, Eye Look the Part, won the six-furlong maiden race by 16 1/2 lengths. He paid $12.80.

Sixteen and-a-half lengths! I guess they weren’t taking any chances. These guys better be careful.  Bookies don’t take kindly to this type of activity. Baseball bats, anyone?  Even worse than this type of coup, is the fact that most tracks allow the cancellation of large bets.  This creates a “license to steal” for larcenous operators who pound a horse early (getting others off the horse due to deflated odds) and then pull money out at the last second to inflate the price.  This is beyond chicanery, and tracks should be very vigilant about this.  But sadly, they are not.

Item:  The Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC) have shelved a betting exchange trial for at least a year.  That’s right, these myopic morons are fine with 5-horse fields where it’s easy to collect purse money, but refuse to allow Betfair to begin an experiment with exchange betting in the US.  Betfair purchased Hollywood Park and TVG (Television Games Network) a while back, with the obvious intention of introducing exchange betting.  Exchange betting has proved wildly successful in Europe.  As win betting accounts for only 20% of US handle, why not give it a try here?  The game is dying, and a betting exchange might just revitalize the industry by attracting that “younger” demographic it is constantly seeking.

In addition, a betting exchange solves pool manipulation issues (if you open a horse at 1/9, everyone will short it) and also solves the late odds drop problem.  On the exchange, the price you “deal” at is locked in. Winning at horseracing is all about getting the right price.  Serious players only bet when they are “getting the best of it”.  But, when odds fluctuate so dramatically (except in the largest of pools), a very tough game becomes almost impossible to beat.  Imagine that you thought you were buying Apple at $550 only to find out you actually bought it at $600.  You might also flee to the safety of 10-year Treasuries yielding 1.47%.

So, there you have it, race fans.  The good, the bad and the ugly.  

Let’s hope the racing industry gets a brain, the state racing commissions get some courage, and the fans have the heart to keep playing.

John Swetye on Cary Fotias

One of the founders of HANA, John Swetye, reflects on the life of Cary Fotias, who passed away at age 60 last weekend.

Cary stood on the shoulders of giants, but he was also a genius.

He was influenced by Ragozin and Sartin, but expanded their ideas. Like Ragozin, Cary made figures, but like Sartin, he added velocity to the mix. Cary's creation was velocity-based pace figures that were used to identify not only the fastest horses, but also horses coming into or falling out out of peak condition.

He once showed me the reams of data he used to do statistical analysis of horses shipping from track to track and dropping in class. He used the knowledge from the research to make sure the adjustments he made to the running times of the races made accurate daily variants. I doubt anyone has ever used such high level math and extensive research to design a system to make figures. I have seen, read and heard a lot about how to make speed/pace figures, but I have never known of any other figures that were made at the high level of Cary's numbers. His methods were revolutionary. His methods were also proprietary, but even if they weren't, there are very few who would be willing or able to follow in his footsteps. The task is simply too daunting for most.

Huey Mahl was a rocket scientist who liked to predict the trajectory of horses running around a track. Cary Fotias was a professional horseplayer who could have calculated the trajectory needed by a rocket to land on the moon.

He came up with so many new concepts that he had to devise names for them -- Reversal, New Pace Top, Cyclical Pace Top, Plunge Line, Turnback and my personal favorite -- Turf Decline Line, etc. I don't know of any other handicapping author who presented so many unique, even revolutionary, ideas in one book.

Noted handicapping author, James Quinn, Ph.D., summed up Cary and his book, "Blinkers Off" very nicely:

"A new voice for the new millennium belongs to Cary Fotias, and he comes in loud and clear. His contribution is both contemporary, one might even say postmodern, and significant. He uses velocity-based pace numbers and energy distribution concepts to identify horses coming to peak condition. The horses can be expected to deliver their best efforts next time, and many do.

A number and variety of figure analysts have depended upon numerical patterns to infer improving form, even peaking form, but none has succeeded, with a high degree of reliability, until now.

A new and important author and book that can enhance handicapping proficiency is always cause for celebration. This one is cause for jubilation."

Nick Mordin may have written the best description of Cary, "Cary was the loudest, funniest, smartest and nicest man I've ever known."

Cary Fotias was a wonderful man. He was never out to hurt anyone or put anyone down. He was as honest and trustworthy as anyone I have ever met. I sure am going to miss him.

Hong Kong Racing Outhandles the US

Horse racing in Hong Kong handled a record $12.1 billion US in the last fiscal year. This, for the first time, beat US wagering in one calendar year.

From this side of the pond there are myriad excuses given how the above could occur, namely the lack of competition, dense population base, cultural differences and more in Hong Kong. However, when one compares apples to apples and digs into it, it appears to be a heck of a lot more than that.

It wasn't always like this. In 2006-2007, handle was falling, just like it was in the US and Canada. Then some changes were made, and the tide was stemmed.

Lowering takeout through rebates on losses in 2007 was the big factor, and along with the usual things Hong Kong tends to do: Publishing vet reports, making sure the product is beyond reproach and others, has resulted in a 57.1% handle increase since 2006.

In the US handle was $14.8 billion in 2007 and will likely come in somewhere around $11 billion this year, for a 25% decrease.

Is horse racing dead? Not in Hong Kong it isn't. It seems it's thriving.

Stop The Madness In Florida

Thoroughbred racing in Florida appears to be getting more dysfunctional with every passing day. Gulfstream and Calder, south Florida's two major venues, are running head-to-head on weekends right now, even going so far as to have the same post time, although as this article by Jim Freer on bloodhorse.com notes, Calder has been running their races off so they don't conflict with Gulfstream's. As you can see in that article as well, while both tracks are claiming wagering success, wagering on the Summit of Speed card at Calder did show a decline of a few hundred thousand dollars from 2013 to this year. Gulfstream has also applied to be the host of the Florida Stallion Series Stakes in 2014, an event Calder has been the site of since 1982 and would like to continue to host.

This has caused issues for horsemen as well. Gulfstream is allowing horses to race anywhere they want and remain stabled at the track, but Calder has taken a much more restrictive approaching, prohibiting horses that race anywhere else in the state of Florida from returning to the track. As this previous article about the situation explains, Calder's strategy isn't just aimed at Gulfstream, but also Tampa Bay Downs, which ran two days (June 30 and July 1). This article explains Tampa Bay Downs' approach. Since they ran those two days, Tampa Bay Downs is now a full-time simulcast host, and now longer has to accept wagers through Calder. That upset officials at Calder, and at the time, they indicated it could lead to purse cuts.

This fight between Calder and Gulfstream, and even Tampa Bay Downs, must get resolved not just for the health of racing in Florida, but for the health of the sport in general. Throw in the continued flap about parimutuel barrel racing in the Sunshine State, and there are even more problems. What is the solution? Calder and Gulfstream need to work out a lease or some other similar type of agreement where Gulfstream could run some of Calder's dates. The sooner this happens the better, and the state must show proper leadership and get involved to get it resolved. While the tracks are claiming wagering bonanzas, the biggest field (after scratches) on Sunday at Calder and Gulfstream were only seven horses, which is not as attractive as it would be if there was only one track in operation.

There is nothing wrong with healthy competition for wagering dollars between tracks, but in this case, the tracks are hurting each other and in turn, hurting the horseplayers, and it needs to end.

Do Hollywood Park Stewards Drop The Ball?

Race six on Sunday afternoon at Betfair Hollywood Park started with So She Dances dropping jockey Joe Talamo after stumbling at the gate and only got worse from there.



As you can see in the race replay, Branding, with Gary Stevens aboard, was making what appeared to be a winning move in the stretch when she was shut off in between the eventual winner,  Miss Radiance (Alonso Quinonez), and the loose So She Dances.  Track announcer Vic Stauffer said in his race call that Branding was "sawed off by the loose horse...and that you can't claim foul against a loose horse."

However, with the stewards not putting up the inquiry sign and allowing the winners' circle photo to be taken, Stevens claimed foul against Miss Radiance and Quinonez, and with apparent good reason as you can see on the head-on replay that begins at 5:30, it appears that the loose horse wasn't the culprit, but Miss Radiance drifting out into Branding's path under a left-handed whip.  The stewards looked at the head-on replay for approximately four minutes, and despite the apparent video evidence that Miss Radiance had fouled Branding, they ruled that "although Miss Radiance drifted out it did not cost Branding a better placing," and allowed the result to stand.

The stewards' decision caused a social media uproar with Branding's owner Craig Bernick, trainer Tom Proctor, and Stevens (1, 2)  all disagreeing with the stewards' decision via Twitter.  Media members Jay Privman (DRF) and Becky Witzman (HRTV), among others, were also against the call as was owner Samantha Siegel.  Horseplayers were also displeased with tweets like this and this representing the general feeling.  One person was happy, though, that being television and radio personality Jim Rome, whose Jungle Racing LLC owns the mare.

There are issues with this decision.  First, the decision appears to be wrong given the video evidence, and second, the reasoning given, that Branding didn't miss out on a higher placing, is also faulty. Finally, what mechanisms are in place to check this call?  If this was the National Football League,  a supervisor of officials would review the call, and if deemed wrong, the league would issue an apology and the officials would be subject to discipline.  Will that happen in this case?

This final tweet sums up the entire situation for many -

Those Hollywood Park stewards are really on their A-game. #HorseRacingShitNoOneSays

— ShitNobodySaysRacing (@NoOneSaysRacing) July 1, 2013

What do you think?

Are Major Changes (Still) Needed at the CHRB and TOC?

Most of you remember the Players Boycott of California racing in late 2010. California had just initiated one of the largest takeout hikes in racing history. Although some of the media reported this was a "strike action" whereby horseplayers simply wanted a better deal, if you read the fine print, this was not the case at all.

The boycott of California racing was not done to hurt California racing. The boycott was done to help it, by hoping to force change in the various organizations like the CHRB and TOC.

From the third item in the Boycott proclamation, as reported by Ed Zieralski was about a restructuring of the alphabets:

• Players Boycott proposes a new "Gambling Board" to advise the CHRB on all gambling related matters such as new bets, takeout rates and scratch rules. Organizers see this board including an economist, a track official, and a player representative. They don’t believe the present CHRB members understand gaming issues. Players Boycott believes that experts should be the ones making gambling-related policy for thoroughbred racing in California.

At the time we proposed someone like a Barry Meadow to be a watchdog for the end consumer of the product. Barry is a smart person and world class gambler who has been around racing all his life. If a first time gelding is not reported, he would be a worthy person to be looking into a new policy. If a new bet was to be issued, he'd be equally worthwhile. If horseplayers are worried about horses racing lame or sore, he would as well. Certainly his perspective on the Baffert matter currently being discussed would at the very least put customers at ease.

Now two years later, with the recent news regarding the TOC, CHRB and the associated Ray Paulick and Bob Baffert feud, we believe this was especially prescient. We'd submit, if they looked into changing the leadership and putting people in charge with specific, professional skills at that time, they may not be in the position they are today.

California racing - its short fields, its infighting, its lack of trust in any form of leadership - has caused a vacuum. That vacuum has consumed the industry there where it seems no one trusts anyone, and nothing can get done in any positive fashion.

How can they possibly right the ship with the present structure? How can they get competitive takeouts, better field size, costs of doing business reductions, racedates, new tracks, old tracks, stabling and all the rest that's need to be done in a multi-billion dollar industry if they stick with the status quo?

Just like two years ago when the Players boycott was taking place, players believe that there needs to be an overhaul. There are good people in California racing - people who are smart, passionate and dedicated to the task at hand. They need to be moved from the background to the forefront. They need to be in charge of restructuring the sport in the Golden State, and lead like leaders do.

Massive Takeout Reductions at Grand River Raceway

In Ontario, slots have been removed from the purse structure. One track - one with a good product for harness racing players - has massively reduced takeouts for their upcoming season. This reduction, from what we can gather, is the largest one time reduction in takeout in the history of the sport in North America.

The reductions total 23.15 per cent across seven pools:


• Win/Place/Show takeout rate reduced from 21.90% to 16.95%
• Exactor takeout rate reduced from 21.90% to 20.50%
• Daily Double takeout rate reduced from 21.90% to 15%
• Pick 4 takeout rate reduced from 24.90% to 15%

The Elora, Ont. track is also introducing the Super Hi-Five wager for one select dash on each card. This wager challenges players to select the top five finishers in a race. The Super Hi-Five takeout will be 15%.

The full press release is here.

Orb!

My brother and his family called me up about an hour before the race. I picked up the phone and said "Hey! What’s up?"

"It’s Kentucky Derby Day and we were thinking of you," his wife replied. "How’s THAT for an excuse to call?"

From there we proceeded to catch up – and had a conversation about my brother's new job, coaching his son’s baseball team, and who I liked in the Derby.

My pick was Normandy Invasion – who, turning for home, took the lead at 9-1 and looked for a moment like he might go on. But as fate would have it, he had been too close to a fast pace, and began to show the effects of that pace as soon as he was confronted by Orb.

It’s Kentucky Derby Day – and I’m tearing up tickets once again.

But on this day I am not just a bettor.

Watching the Florida Derby – and now Kentucky Derby - winner, Orb, walk back to be unsaddled – flicking his ears, overstepping, and looking every bit like he wants to go around the track again – some "switch" deep in my inner core flips to the "on" position.

On this day I am more than just a bettor.

I am a fan.

Jeff Platt

President, HANA

2013 HANA Track Ratings Sortable Spreadsheet Is Now Live

How does your favorite track stack up in terms of field size? Takeout? What bets do they offer compared to other tracks?

It's all live now, sortable by almost every metric.

To check it out, please click here.

And remember, satellite tournaments and the low takeout $10,000 HANA Game at Derby Wars is this Saturday, with races from Keeneland, Oaklawn and Aqueduct, including the Blue Grass. We hope to see you there!

$10,000 HANA Game and the Love of Handicapping Contests

"All too often, the negative aspects of the sport are highlighted, so this is a refreshing opportunity to really savor a great weekend of racing. "

As a handicapper, one of the more compelling aspects of the Sport of Kings is the sheer number of moving parts. Not only does the player need to correctly identify those runners destined to put forth a great effort, but one must also survey the massive number of wagering options and attempt to maximize correct opinions. Keeping accurate statistics of my own play led me to primarily tackle horizontal wagering, as those bets yield the kind of success I was looking for versus other options. I’ve also found that Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s are essentially very enjoyable “mini-tournaments”. 

With that said, the proliferation of handicapping tournaments in recent years is a benefit to the player, especially those that are already multi-race enthusiasts in their typical day to day betting. What makes handicapping compelling is the opportunity to invest a relatively small amount of money to win a relatively large amount. Tournaments accomplish this with a fixed entry fee, which is music to the ears of those wanting to manage money in a meaningful way. You can get several hours worth of entertainment and action with a known cost. Through any given race card, I often struggle with playing too many races and managing money in a poor fashion, so this is paramount.

Derby Wars is a unique site offering a plethora of games, with differing stakes, to suit the likes of most players. Building off the theme of laying out a little to get a lot, I enjoy entering low cost Derby Wars satellites for a chance to win seats in more expensive tournaments with a nice top prize. The interface is easy to use, the takeout rates are favorable, and the variety of games makes it a fun environment.

HANA is excited to partner with Derby Wars to sponsor a$10,000 tournament on April 13^th, the last major weekend of Derby Prep races featuring the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes.  All too often, the negative aspects of the sport are highlighted, so this is a refreshing opportunity to really savor a great weekend of racing. The entry fee is $47 with a top prize of $2,500 and players down to 20^th place will cash. Satellites are available on a regular basis, so please check out www.derbywars.com  and  join us for what promises to be a wonderful event amongst like-minded handicapping enthusiasts. 

Note: As you can see, there are already ways to get entry into the big game this weekend. We hope to see everyone there! 

   

HANA NEWS - April, 2013

The April, 2013 HANA Newsletter is now up on our website.

Here's a link:
http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hananewsapril2013.html


California Handle Update - 14% Takeout Pick5
Not only are Santa Anita's year over year handle numbers for the 14% takeout pick five up $5.35 million and 46.9 percent respectively - but, apparently, the low takeout bet is sparking handle growth in the pools of the other wagers on the wagering menu for the races in the pick five sequence.

With 1 fewer race day this year vs. last year - and looking strictly at the races in the Pick5 sequence - or races 1-5 only:

Dollar Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.......... UP $16.45 million
Percentage Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.. UP 10.14 percent

However, looking only at the races outside the Pick5 sequence:

Dollar Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.......... UP $2.13 million
Percentage Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.. UP 0.94 percent

Read more at the HANA Blog...

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Special Notice to Illinois ADW Players:
What YOU can do to reinstate ADW (Account Deposit Wagering) in your state.

Make a difference! -click here-

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HANA Harness Announces the 2013 Grand Circuit Handicapping Challenge
(March 29 2013) - The Horseplayers Association of North America's (HANA) harness racing division in association with the Hambletonian Society, Chicago Harness (Balmoral and Maywood Parks), The Meadowlands, Tioga Downs, and Vernon Downs is pleased to announce "The 2013 Grand Circuit Handicapping Challenge".

The format of this year's competition is a change from past Pen vs. Chip competitions as it doesn't matter which type of handicapping method a handicapper uses as long as it is their own. In addition, instead of handicapping complete race cards, the contest focuses only on Grand Circuit races. Using the Grand Circuit schedule, excluding most elimination races, handicappers will be given $30 to wager as they will on race finals or in the case of races being contested in divisions, on one or more of the divisions. Each gambler must invest the full $30 or they will be penalized. The handicapper with the highest net profit after the last Grand Circuit race of the year will be the champion. The contest begins and concludes at Northfield Park; beginning on April 26 with the Courageous Lady and concluding on December 14 with the Cleveland Classic and includes 74 contest dates and 230 individual races. Rules and the Schedule of Races may be found at the contest website.

For more info contact Allan Schott at: allan@hanaweb.org

Read more at the Contest Website...

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HANA & Derby Wars Announce $10,000 Low Takeout HANA Game
(March 26 2013) - The Horseplayers Association of North America is pleased to announce that once again this year, the membership is invited to participate in an online handicapping tournament on Saturday April 13th. This unique event will feature high quality races (including the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby!) from tracks with advantageous takeout rates.

The handicapping contest is in partnership with derbywars.com, the preeminent online tournament site committed to providing players ample contest opportunities at industry leading takeout rates. Through the Derby Wars chat environment, members will be able to interact in real time with one another as well as HANA leadership. Please feel free to ask questions about our charter and find out more about our commitment to improving the game while enjoying the challenge of competing for a $10,000 prize pool.

Read more at the HANA Blog...

Contest site sign up link -click here-

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Hastings Returns (with 15% takeout again this year)
Live racing returns at Hastings Race Course. Opening Day is Saturday April 13, 2013. First post is at 1:50 pm pacific.

Quote from Raj Mutti, Regional General Manager for BC Racing:

"Hastings will offer low takeout of 15% on their WIN/PLACE/SHOW, Daily Double, Pick 3,4,5 wagering pools once again this year.

"Also this year after upgrades to our tote we will be able to offer our US players fractional wagering on Superfecta and Pick 4 Pools at $.20 and Pick 5 Pool at $.60.

In the US players can play us thru TVG, Twinspires, Xpressbet and various tracks and offtrack locations through the country.

Over the last couple of years as part of our reduced takeout strategy we have seen significant handle gains, 5% in 2011 and 12% in 2012, and in 2013 we hope to continue that trend with further market penetration."

Visit HastingsRaceCourse.com...

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Questionable DQ at Gulfstream Park?
You make the call.

Read more at DRF.com...

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Cibelli Case: Two Months and Counting
It's been nearly two months since veterinarian Orlando Paraliticci was banned from the Tampa Bay Downs premises by track management because of an incident that took place at the barn of trainer Jane Cibelli. Paraliticci, known as Dr. O on the backside of the Oldsmar, Fla., racetrack, allegedly was observed injecting a horse's knee on the morning it was scheduled to race - a practice that is strictly prohibited.

Read more at The Paulick Report...

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RCI Approval Sets Stage for Uniform Medication Rules
Racing Commissioners International (RCI) today gave final approval to the RCI Controlled Therapeutic Medication Schedule, setting the stage for uniform implementation of racing medication rules in the United States and beyond.

The RCI schedule is intended to be a guide for testing laboratories in determining the level at which the presence of a substance would violate the rules and become a violation. It also creates restrictions on administering medications within times certain prior to a race, creating a clear line that horsemen and veterinarians should not cross.

Read more at The Paulick Report...

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Horses Running at Santa Anita Are Under Surveillance
Horses competing in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby have been put under surveillance for the 72 hours before the race for the first time after an owner with a horse in the race offered to pay for the enhanced security to ensure the race was run fairly and provide transparency to the betting public.

Read more at the New York Times...

HANA Newsletter Editor's Note:
As much as increased security for Graded Stakes Races seems like such a no brainer, multiple sources in California have told me final approval for this was no slam dunk. Apparently, the idea was met with significant resistance by the higher ups at both the TOC and CHRB. In my opinion, Santa Anita President George Haines deserves a tip of the hat from horseplayers everywhere for standing firm and getting this done.

Jeff Platt
President, HANA

Keeneland Again Tops Horseplayers Association of North America Racetrack Ratings

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

(April 4, 2013, Charlottesville, VA): The Horseplayers Association of North America has released their annual Racetrack Ratings.  In 2013, for the fifth consecutive year, no track could displace Keeneland as the number one rated racetrack in North America.

“The rating algorithm indicates betting value, and at Keeneland this is exemplified perfectly,” said HANA President Jeff Platt. “With no takeout rate on any bet higher than 19%, a large field size of 9.45 horses per race, and a race office cognizant of carding interesting, bettable races for customers, Keeneland came out on top once again.”

“It’s an honor for Keeneland to be recognized by HANA for the fifth consecutive year as the nation’s No. 1 track for horseplayers,” said Keeneland President Bill Thomason.  “We are fortunate to have large, quality fields, and strive to offer a wide variety of wagering options and a reasonable takeout rate.  We remain committed to showcasing horse racing in a way that appeals to all horseplayers and appreciate HANA’s recognition of those efforts.”

Keeneland was followed by Churchill Downs, up from last year’s 4^th place rating, Gulfstream Park, which held steady at 3^rd, and Tampa Bay Downs, which moved down from 2^nd to 4^th.

Of the medium-sized tracks, or those with shorter meets, Kentucky Downs vaulted from 29^th to 5^th on the heels of their very successful 2012 boutique meet, where they reduced takeout precipitously and increased their pool size by 64.8%. Sam Houston had another strong year, and was again highly ranked.

Perennial horseplayer and fan favorite Saratoga continued their strong showing in the rankings with a slight increase in field size from 2012.

The HANA Racetrack Ratings are based on an algorithm designed by HANA Board member Bill Weaver, a retired engineer. Using studies and empirical data which are directly correlated to horseplayer value and handle growth, key factors including takeout rate, field size, wager variety, pool size and signal distribution are weighted. A composite score is then tabulated, and the 67 racetracks are ranked.
 
The sortable rankings sheet, with takeout data, pool size and track information, as well as the new sortable payouts sheet, will be uploaded on the HANA website next week.

2013 HANA Racetrack Ratings

Keeneland

Churchill Downs

Gulfstream

Tampa Bay Downs

Kentucky Downs

Sam Houston

Oaklawn

Hawthorne

Saratoga

Retama

Belmont

Arlington

Ellis Park

Turfway

Santa Anita

Indiana

Aqueduct

Del Mar

Delta Downs

Monmouth

Atlantic City

CharlesTown

Hollywood

Evangeline

Lone Star

Sunland

Canterbury

Hastings

Pimlico

Louisiana Downs

Fairgrounds

Laurel

Colonial Downs

Prairie Meadows

Will Rogers Downs

Delaware

Fonner Park

Hoosier

Remington QH/Mixed

Beulah

Woodbine

Remington

Presque Isle

Golden Gate

Calder

Penn National

Mountaineer

Fairplex

Fairmont Park

Finger Lakes

Turf Paradise

Portland Meadows

SunRay Park

Philadelphia

Fair Meadows Tulsa

Northlands

Suffolk

Arapahoe

Thistledown

Zia Park

Ca. Racing Fairs

Emerald Downs

River Downs

Los Alamitos

Albuquerque

Fort Erie

Assinoibia Click image below to enlarge to see composite scores

The Horseplayers Association of North America is a grassroots group of horseplayers, not affiliated with any organization. HANA believes that both tracks and horseman groups have lost sight of the importance of the customer. HANA hopes, through proactive change on several key issues (including but not limited to), open signal access, lower effective takeouts, uniform and fair medication rules, wagering integrity, affordable data and customer appreciation, the industry’s handle losses can be reversed. HANA is currently made up of over 2,500 horseplayers (both harness and thoroughbred) from almost all states and Canadian provinces. We currently represent over $100,000,000 of yearly racing handle.

Our web address is http://www.horseplayersassociation.org and interested horseplayers can sign up there for free. We are horseplayers, just like you and we are trying to make a difference. We need, appreciate, and ask humbly for your support.

California Racing Update

The 14% takeout pick five came about as a result of the Players Boycott, which in turn was a reaction to SB 1072 and its ensuing takeout hike. (Real credit for the Pick5 belongs to Roger Way, R.I.P.) I know this because I was in the room when the decision was finally made to implement the pick five. Brian Boudreau, Vice Chairman of the TOC, told me “We are going to give one of your ideas a try. We are meeting with track management in about an hour and we are going to tell them we are in favor of implementing a 14% takeout pick five as a new bet.” He and I stood up, looked each other in the eye, and shook hands.

The rest, as they say, is history.

Last summer, I wrote about the 14% takeout pick five and a new handle trend at Del Mar. Here’s a cut and paste from that write up:

“Q. What single wager type is up the most?

A. That’s easy. It’s the 14% Takeout Pick 5 and it’s up 51.8% this year vs. last year.

Q. Is it possible that instead of cannibalizing handle, customer awareness about the 14% Takeout Pick 5 bet is generating overflow handle into the other pools and races for the races involving the pick 5 sequence?

A. Overall handle for races 1-5, the races in the 14% Takeout Pick 5 sequence is up an encouraging 10.2% this year vs. last year.

Overall handle on the races outside of the 14% Takeout Pick 5 sequence is up just 1.6%  (compared to a 10.2% overall handle increase for the races inside of the 14% Takeout Pick 5 sequence.)”

Link here:

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2012/08/california-s-14-takeout-pick-5-del-mar.html

The 14% takeout pick five is now in its second year. I’m happy to report that the growth trend first seen last summer at Del Mar is continuing this year at Santa Anita.

For the calendar quarter just ended March 31, 2013 - the year over year handle numbers at Santa Anita tell the story.

Not only are Santa Anita's year over year handle numbers for the 14% takeout pick five up $5.35 million and 46.9 percent respectively - but, apparently, the low takeout bet is sparking handle growth in the pools of the other wagers on the wagering menu for the races in the pick five sequence.

With 1 fewer race day this year vs. last year – and looking strictly at the races in the Pick5 sequence - or races 1-5 only:

Dollar Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012: …….. UP $16.45 million

Percentage Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.. UP 10.14 percent

However, looking only at the races outside the Pick5 sequence:

Dollar Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012: …….. UP $2.13 million

Percentage Change in Total Handle Q1 2013 vs. Q1 2012:.. UP 0.94 percent

This trend is remarkable because it runs counter to a big picture handle trend spanning the past 75 years or so. Historically, the later races on the card have always garnered more attention from bettors and out-handled the early races on the card because: 1.) Field size is bigger. 2.) The quality of stock is better. 3.) Attendance is higher – both on track and online. (Hey, some of us are procrastinators.)

The handle numbers for the races in the 14% takeout pick five sequence buck that big picture trend.

Here’s what I think is happening:

When I was in college I worked as a Liquor Department Manager for Walgreens. For those of you who may not be aware, Walgreens is a successful retailer. The first Walgreens store was opened in 1901. According to Wikipedia: Walgreens had 8,061 drugstores as of December 31, 2012.  Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walgreens

At the time that I worked there, the newspaper ad for all 26 Walgreens stores in our district came out every other Wednesday. Considerable planning was involved. As a department manager it was up to me to review the upcoming ads, order large enough quantities of the items scheduled to be on sale, and see to it that the merchandise did in fact arrive and was on hand in store in advance of each sale. The objective was to order enough of each item to see us through the sale without running out of stock – but not so much that we would be stuck with large quantities of inventory after the sale was over.

Walgreens had another objective: Customer goodwill. Not only was each store to have ample ad merchandise on hand – but ad merchandise was to be displayed in a manner so that the customer could easily find it.

Each department in the store had one primary sale item designated as that department’s feature item in the ad. As department manager, it was my job to make sure that my department’s feature item was prominently displayed on an end stand. Further, the end stand for the feature item was positioned so as to be immediately visible to the customer the moment he or she approached my department.

Come back with me to 1977. It’s a Wednesday in late March and our new ad just came out today.

The first thing you see when you walk into my department is a giant end stand where about 300 cases of Budweiser twelve packs are stacked like a pyramid. In front of the end stand is a sign. Taped to the sign is the actual headline clipped from the newspaper ad. It reads: $2.79 Budweiser Twelve Pack 12 oz. cans. If you look closely, at the bottom of the sign is smaller lettering that reads: Regular price $3.69. (No limit.)

Every day for the next two weeks I watch as literally every beer drinker within a 10 mile radius of the store walks into my department and does exactly the same thing. They walk in, hundreds of them, maybe thousands, one after another… They see the end stand, stop, read the sign, grab a shopping cart, and load it up with Budweiser twelve packs. Then, literally every one of them wanders the department and fills up the cart with other items that aren’t on sale… margarita mix, bottles of wine, a bag of ice, pretzels, chips, salsa, beef jerky, a jar of peanuts, a bottle of whiskey or vodka or gin or brandy for the more dedicated drinkers among them. Literally nobody – and I do mean no one – comes up to the register with a shopping cart that only has Budweiser twelve packs in it. As long as I have enough Budweiser twelve packs on hand so that we don’t run out of stock – every customer leaves the store happy. And when the next new ad comes out and something else goes on sale – most if not all of those same customers will come back – and leave the store happy all over again.

The company is happy because the customer is happy. Three words come to mind: Pure marketing genius.

Sadly, I see very little in the way of pure marketing genius going on behind the scenes these days when it comes to the decision making for California Racing.

However, the 14% takeout pick five does appear to have California Racing cashing in on the same psychological theme Walgreens has been cashing in on since 1901.

The numbers suggest that bettors are looking at races one through five and walking into the store because of the sale item. Some are even arriving at the register with more than just the sale item in their carts.

Jeff Platt

President, HANA